The “agreement” from the European summit is singularly devoid of real progress–so why were European markets up today?

Maybe the crucial explanation for why European stock markets were up today, and Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese bond yields are down is speculation on the size of the next offer of three-year loans by the European Central Bank on February 29. Speculation now is that banks could take down even more money this time.

At 2.8% fourth-quarter GDP growth is disappointing, but the numbers look even more worrying if you dig deeper

At 2.8% fourth-quarter GDP growth is disappointing, but the numbers look even more worrying if you dig deeper

Is this what the Federal Reserve saw in the fourth quarter GDP numbers that made it pessimistic enough on Wednesday to say that exceptionally low interest rates will be with us until the end of 2014 instead of “just” the middle of 2013? At 2.8% headline growth was disappointing but more worrying the biggest contributor to growth in the quarter was an increase in inventories.