What me worry?

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How bad will effects of Brexit be? Pick your time frame

How bad will effects of Brexit be? Pick your time frame

German investor confidence fell in July on worries over the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union. Released today the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany, which looks six months ahead ( in other words into early 2017), fell to -6.8 from 19.2 in June. On the other hand, the International Monetary Fund, looking only at 2016, doesn’t see much danger from Brexit–in that time frame–outside of the United Kingdom itself.

At least IBM didn’t cut guidance today

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This earnings season it’s third-quarter guidance that counts

Ok, everyone knows that second quarter earnings, the earnings that companies are reporting right now, are going to be dismal. Overall earnings for the S&P 500 stocks are expected to fall 4.5% year over year. Earnings for technology stocks are expected to be even worse with a year over year decline of 7.4%. But that dismal forecast is by now old news. And a stock market that heads for new highs every day is clearly looking forward to a recovery in the third quarter