Trick or trend: Is Kevin Warsh really the most likely next head of the Federal Reserve?

The tea leaves seem to say that President Donald Trump is leaning toward appointing Kevin Warsh to head the Federal Reserve when Janet Yellen’s term as chair of the U.S. central bank expires in February 2018. Trump has met with Warsh to discuss the position of chair of the Fed, the White House confirmed this week. Yellen, meanwhile, told reporters that she had not met with Trump since early in 2017.

Slightly lower than expected inflation reported this morning hasn’t (so far) dented expectations for December 13 Fed interest rate increase

Slightly lower than expected inflation reported this morning hasn’t (so far) dented expectations for December 13 Fed interest rate increase

For August the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, showed an increase in core inflation of just 0.1%. Economists had projected an increase of 0.2% for the month. Year over year the core PCE Index is up 1.3%, well short of the Fed’s target inflation rate of 2%.

Oh no! for oil prices–U.S. shale producers hedge above $50 a barrel

Oh no! for oil prices–U.S. shale producers hedge above $50 a barrel

U.S. oil producers have hedged more of their oil production in the last two weeks than in the last four to five months. In August a sample of 43 large and small U.S. producers had hedged just 23% of 2018 production. But now with West Texas Intermediate back above $52 a barrel, producers have rushed to finish hedging 2017 production, and the bulk of their 2018 production, and started to establish hedges for 2019.