Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…

Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…

The week’s economic news reaches a crescendo with Friday’s report on March jobs. That Friday report will set the tone for the market’s take on the speed with which the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its next two meetings. Right now the Fed Funds futures market is showing almost no chance of an increase from the current 1.5% to 1.75% range at the May 2 meeting. The odds, however, soar to an 80.5% chance of an increase in interest rates at the Fed’s June 13 meeting

Notes You Need for March 29: German inflation, TSLA production short again, Facebook, ACXM, soybeans vs. corn, AT&T vs CSCO

Notes You Need for March 29: German inflation, TSLA production short again, Facebook, ACXM, soybeans vs. corn, AT&T vs CSCO

In my daily trawling through the market I come upon lots of tidbits of knowledge that I think are important to investors but that don’t justify a full post. I’ve decided to start compiling these notes here each day in a kind of running mini blog that I’m calling Notes You Need. A representative entry resembles this from today: “10:40 a.m.: Tesla (TSLA) is coping with what looks like another quarter of lagging production for its Model 3. Deutsche Bank is projecting that production averaged just 800 cars a week in the first quarter. The weekly run rate, the bank’s analysts say, is now approaching 1,100 cars. That’s well short of the 2,500 cars a week that CEO Elon Musk had targeted for the first quarter. I’m not sure that this will be a big surprise to Tesla investors.”

What’s real and what’s not in the Trump administration’s tariff war/bluster?

What’s real and what’s not in the Trump administration’s tariff war/bluster?

If you’re having a hard time figuring out what parts of the Trump administration’s tariff plans are serious (and thus might provoke a global trade war) and what parts are bluster (designed as outliers in an ongoing negotiation), you’re not alone. The financial markets are bouncing between panic–at the potential end of global growth–and relief–because the final positions won’t be all that bad. And unfortunately, the whiplash is not about to get any better.

Treasuries break downward trend to rally on tech tumble–how long will last?

The plunge in U.S. stocks and in technology shares in particular have sent Treasury prices up and yields down, breaking the 20-basis point range that’s held since early February. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell 8 basis points on Tuesday and is down another 2 basis points today to 2.76% as of 12:30 p.m. Bond traders are watching for any signs that we could be looking at a replay of 2017.

Tuesday’s intraday reversal was bad news–and not just for tech stocks

Tuesday’s intraday reversal was bad news–and not just for tech stocks

Tuesday looked fine until noon–12:04 p.m. New York time, to be precise. That turned out to be the high for the day–at 2674.62–up 0.62% from the Monday close. It looked like we might even get follow through on Monday’s huge bounce. And then came the reversal. The index slipped steadily if unspectacularly until by 2:43 p.m. it was down 0.19% for the day. Then the slip turned into a plunge. But the real development of the day was the collapse of stocks in the technology sector

Goldman Sachs turns bullish on gold

Goldman Sachs turns bullish on gold

Goldman Sachs has turned positive on gold for the first time in five years.  “Our commodities team believes that the dislocation between the gold prices and U.S. rates is here to say,” Goldman Sachs says. Drivers for higher gold prices include signs of an uptick in inflation and increased risk in equity markets.

Notes You Need for March 29: German inflation, TSLA production short again, Facebook, ACXM, soybeans vs. corn, AT&T vs CSCO

“Smart Money” and shorts are skeptical on Monday rally

The Smart Money Flow Index shows that professional money managers remain skeptical of the rally. The index is near a two-year low and advanced only 1.2% on Monday, a day that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average move up 2.8%. A Goldman Sachs basket that tracks the 50 stocks with the highest short interest in the Russell 3000 Index was up on 1.7% on Monday when the Russell 30000 climbed 2.6% on Monday–a big enough move that it might have triggered panic buying by traders looking to close out short positions

Reasons to worry about this bounce

Reasons to worry about this bounce

Of course, it would be great (if you’re long U.S. stocks) if today’s bounce marked the beginning of a recovery to the record highs in place before last week’s plunge. But…It’s very early in this bounce.

Cracking the nutty asset correlations of this market

Cracking the nutty asset correlations of this market

This morning provided a great example of how confusing and complicated correlations among asset classes are in the current market.Stocks rallied with the Standard & Poor’s 500 up 1.15% as of 11 a.m. New York time and the Dow Industrial Average ahead 1.7%. In some markets that would have been an all-clear signal after last week’s chaos and sent a message that buying risk assets was okay again.