Special Report on Investing in a Late Cycle Market: Late Cycle Markets are crazy–Part 1, The problem

Special Report on Investing in a Late Cycle Market: Late Cycle Markets are crazy–Part 1, The problem

If you don’t know the characteristics of Late Cycle Markets, you’re trading and investing now with blinders on.

At the least you should know to expect a big pickup in volatility. Trends last less time and big moves shift rapidly from one sector of the financial market to another. Frankly, I don’t think there’s a more important job in front of you as an investor than trying to understand what a Late Cycle Market is and what to do when you find yourself in one. At the least understanding a Late Cycle Market will point you to decisions on how to position your portfolio and how much risk it is reasonable to take on (and when.)

Temporary exemptions done; Trump administration imposes steel  and aluminum tariffs on EU, Canada, and Mexico

Temporary exemptions done; Trump administration imposes steel and aluminum tariffs on EU, Canada, and Mexico

Just hours before temporary exemptions on steel and aluminum imports from the European Union, Canada and Mexico were due to expire at 12:01 a.m. on Friday, the Trump administration has imposed the 25% and 10% tariffs on those imports originally announced in March. Those countries and other U.S. allies and trading partners had been granted temporary exemptions from the tariffs.

Markets relax, a bit, on Italy crisis

Markets relax, a bit, on Italy crisis

The consensus in financial markets today seems to be that yesterday’s drop on fears that Italy was headed to a crisis that could shake the euro were a bit overstated. This isn’t to say that markets have concluded that the crisis is over–or never existed–just that it won’t bring the end of the EuroZone as we know it tomorrow.

Has someone in Beijing read The Art of the Deal?

Has someone in Beijing read The Art of the Deal?

The next move that would increase China’s leverage–according to then real estate tycoon Donald Trump’s book–would be to cancel the talks scheduled to begin on Wednesday in preparation for the arrival of a U.S. delegation led by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. If those preparatory talks fail to reach agreement on an outline of topics the June 2 trip by Ross could be canceled, the Wall Street Journal is reporting today.

Here we go again on the euro: The bad news is that Italy’s financial crisis is political

Here we go again on the euro: The bad news is that Italy’s financial crisis is political

The good news is that the European Central Bank, thanks to the global financial crisis and the Greek debt crisis, has mechanisms in place to support Italian bonds, Italian banks, and the Italian financial system. The bad news is that an Italian government has to ask for that help after swearing to be fiscally responsible. At the moment there is, once again, no Italian government. A bid by the populist parties that came in ahead of the field in the latest election was rejected by Italy’s president. And these parties aren’t likely to meet the European Central Bank’s requirements for help.

So much for the China tariff truce

So much for the China tariff truce

Just a week after U.S. Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin declared  a “truce” in President Donald Trump’s tariff war with China, today the White House has announced that it plans to put a 25% tariff on $50 billion in Chinese exports to the United States.  By June 15, the Trump Administration will release a list of some $50 billion worth of Chinese goods that will be subject to a 25% percent tariff

Canadian government buys Trans Mountain Pipeline and removes huge albatross from neck of Kinder Morgan

Saturday Night Quarterback (on Memorial Day) says, For the week ahead expect…

I expect the slide in oil prices to continue as speculation runs amok ahead of the June 22 OPEC meeting on production limits. This past week has seen oil give back just about all of its earlier recent gains. From May 21 through May 28 the futures contract for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate for July delivery dropped 8.1% to $66.36 a barrel. From May 23 to May 28 the futures contract for international benchmark Brent crude for July delivery fell 5.7% to $75.22 a barrel.

Now it’s the Saudis talking about increasing oil production

Yesterday, Russia sent oil prices tumbling by saying that it might be time for OPEC and its allies (including Russia) to revisit current production cuts. Today, it’s Saudi Arabia. “I think in the near future there will be time to release supply,” said Saudi Energy Minister Khalid  Al-Falih. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell to close down 4.41% today at $67.59. The international Brent benchmark dropped 3.2% to $76.27

Market shrugs off President Trump’s decision to cancel June 12 North Korea summit

Unless you’re invested in South Korean equities, President Donald Trump’s decision to cancel the June 12 summit with North Korea is a non-event in today’s financial markets. The iShares MSCI South Korea Capped ETF (EWY) was indeed down 1.60% as of 3 p.m. New York time, but the wider iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) is off just 0.61% and U.S. indexes are lower by even small amounts with the Standard & Poor’s 500 down 0.18%