May 31, 2018 | Daily JAM, Special Reports |
If you don’t know the characteristics of Late Cycle Markets, you’re trading and investing now with blinders on.
At the least you should know to expect a big pickup in volatility. Trends last less time and big moves shift rapidly from one sector of the financial market to another. Frankly, I don’t think there’s a more important job in front of you as an investor than trying to understand what a Late Cycle Market is and what to do when you find yourself in one. At the least understanding a Late Cycle Market will point you to decisions on how to position your portfolio and how much risk it is reasonable to take on (and when.)
May 31, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Just hours before temporary exemptions on steel and aluminum imports from the European Union, Canada and Mexico were due to expire at 12:01 a.m. on Friday, the Trump administration has imposed the 25% and 10% tariffs on those imports originally announced in March. Those countries and other U.S. allies and trading partners had been granted temporary exemptions from the tariffs.
May 30, 2018 | Daily JAM, KMI, Stock Alerts |
Yesterday the Canadian government announced that it will buy the Trans Mountain Pipeline from Kinder Morgan Canada for CAD$ 4.5 billion. Kinder Morgan (KMI), a member of my Dividend Portfolio, owns a 70% stake in Kinder Morgan Canada. The sale, which certainly isn't...
May 30, 2018 | Daily JAM |
The consensus in financial markets today seems to be that yesterday’s drop on fears that Italy was headed to a crisis that could shake the euro were a bit overstated. This isn’t to say that markets have concluded that the crisis is over–or never existed–just that it won’t bring the end of the EuroZone as we know it tomorrow.
May 30, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The next move that would increase China’s leverage–according to then real estate tycoon Donald Trump’s book–would be to cancel the talks scheduled to begin on Wednesday in preparation for the arrival of a U.S. delegation led by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. If those preparatory talks fail to reach agreement on an outline of topics the June 2 trip by Ross could be canceled, the Wall Street Journal is reporting today.
May 29, 2018 | Daily JAM |
The good news is that the European Central Bank, thanks to the global financial crisis and the Greek debt crisis, has mechanisms in place to support Italian bonds, Italian banks, and the Italian financial system. The bad news is that an Italian government has to ask for that help after swearing to be fiscally responsible. At the moment there is, once again, no Italian government. A bid by the populist parties that came in ahead of the field in the latest election was rejected by Italy’s president. And these parties aren’t likely to meet the European Central Bank’s requirements for help.
May 29, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Just a week after U.S. Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin declared  a “truce” in President Donald Trump’s tariff war with China, today the White House has announced that it plans to put a 25% tariff on $50 billion in Chinese exports to the United States.  By June 15, the Trump Administration will release a list of some $50 billion worth of Chinese goods that will be subject to a 25% percent tariff
May 28, 2018 | Daily JAM |
I expect the slide in oil prices to continue as speculation runs amok ahead of the June 22 OPEC meeting on production limits. This past week has seen oil give back just about all of its earlier recent gains. From May 21 through May 28 the futures contract for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate for July delivery dropped 8.1% to $66.36 a barrel. From May 23 to May 28 the futures contract for international benchmark Brent crude for July delivery fell 5.7% to $75.22 a barrel.
May 25, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Yesterday, Russia sent oil prices tumbling by saying that it might be time for OPEC and its allies (including Russia) to revisit current production cuts. Today, it’s Saudi Arabia. “I think in the near future there will be time to release supply,” said Saudi Energy Minister Khalid  Al-Falih. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell to close down 4.41% today at $67.59. The international Brent benchmark dropped 3.2% to $76.27
May 24, 2018 | Daily JAM, EQNR, STO |
A change in the name and ticker of portfolio holding Statoil (STO). The explanation offered by the company is that it wanted to remove “oil” from its name to better reflect the company’s increasing emphasis on other forms of energy including wind power. The new name is Equinor (EQNR).
May 24, 2018 | Daily JAM |
The energy ministers from Russia and Saudi Arabia will discuss a potential relaxation of the global output cap agreed between OPEC and Moscow when they meet on June 22. That was enough today to end the rally in oil. West Texas Intermediate fell to $70.71, down 1.59%and Brent crude dropped to $78.79, a decline of 1.3%.
May 24, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Unless you’re invested in South Korean equities, President Donald Trump’s decision to cancel the June 12 summit with North Korea is a non-event in today’s financial markets. The iShares MSCI South Korea Capped ETF (EWY) was indeed down 1.60% as of 3 p.m. New York time, but the wider iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) is off just 0.61% and U.S. indexes are lower by even small amounts with the Standard & Poor’s 500 down 0.18%