Blog

Archive for June, 2018

Trick or Trend: Financials fade badly into close–what’s it mean?

Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series ( actually running on Friday this week due to a clerical error, I'm sure) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. Financial stocks that were up so strongly […]

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My cash position in Jubak Picks portfolio is up to 35%, roughly

Lots of activity in this portfolio since I last reported on its cash level. There have been sells of MGM Resorts International (MGM), Starbucks (SBUX), and Arco Dorados (ARCO). I've made buys of Microsoft (MSFT), Lionsgate Entertainment (LGF/A), and Valero (VLO). At the end of 2017, the cash position in this portfolio was 27%. Right […]

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Notes You Need for June 29: Inflation, consumer spending, oil prices, tariffs, EuroZone inflation, U.S. deficit, rig count, GM warns on tariff effect on jobs

In my daily trawling through the market I come upon lots of tidbits of knowledge that I think are important to investors but that don't justify a full post. I've decided to start compiling these notes here each day in a kind of running mini blog that I'm calling Notes You Need. I launched this new […]

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Finally financials lead–but watch out for a late session fold

With most of the country's banks passing the Federal Reserve's latest stress test yesterday--which leaves them free to increase dividends and buy back more shares--the financial sector is leading the markets higher this morning. As of 11 a.m. New York time the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) was up 1.75%. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is […]

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My baseline U.S. stock market scenario for the next 30 days

So much negative uncertainty from big possible events. Such strong short term earnings fundamentals. How will these all balance out? Before I get to my take on the answer to that question let's take a brief stop to look at what a baseline scenario is and why putting one together is important. A baseline scenario […]

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Heady expectations for 4% second quarter GDP growth make lower first quarter revision irrelevant

The third revision for first quarter GDP, announced this morning, continued the pattern of lower growth with each update. The third revision showed annual GDP growth in the first quarter slowing to 2.0% from a prior 2.2%. Financial markets ordinarily don't care much about third revisions to GDP growth. The first quarter was a long […]

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Stocks reverse after White House economic advisor Kudlow signals tougher policy on Chinese investments

Yesterday and for the first part of today, U.S. stocks moved higher on hopes of lessening tensions between the United States and China over trade and investment. Specifically, stocks moved up after President Donald Trump said he would stick with the existing mechanism of a review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United […]

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Aggressive November 4 U.S. deadline on ending Iran oil exports threatens more oil market turmoil

Want to know how high oil can go? So do the oil markets, frankly. West Texas Intermediate closed today at $72.32 a barrel, up another 2.54%. The U.S. crude benchmark stood at $64.19 on June 15. That's a gain of 12.7%. Lurking in the wings is a demand by the Trump administration that all countries […]

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Oil soars on U.S. inventory report, supply fears

As of noon New York time today, U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate is up 3.30%. International benchmark Brent is ahead 2.41%. The climb follows on data from the Energy Information Administration showing a huge draw of 9.9 millions barrels in U.S. crude stockpiles for the week ended June 22. This follows on yesterday's report from […]

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Canadian tariffs on global (not just U.S.) steel imports a major escalation in building trade war

The Canadian government will slap a combination of quotas and higher tariffs on steel imports from China, South Korea, Brazil and Turkey. This is a major step beyond the retaliatory tariffs announced by U.S. trading partners in response to higher U.S. tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum. The new measures now being […]

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