Blog

Archive for September, 2018

Trick or Trend: Is there a NAFTA deal brewing this weekend with Canada (or not)?

Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series ( actually running on Saturday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. On Friday the United States and Mexico put off plans to publish the full […]

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Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…

... economic news. Lot of economic news. It is the beginning of the month after all so we're due for all the data dumps from September. We get the Institute for Supply for Management's Purchasing Managers Index for Manufacturing (on Monday)  and Services (on Wednesday.) Both indexes have been extremely strong lately with readings of […]

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Dollar fundamentals continue to erode

I don't think there's anything more important to financial markets--well, assuming we don't get some kind of completely off-the-wall black swan event--over the next three months or so than the strength or weakness of the dollar. My judgment on trends in the greenback are crucial to my thinking on an emerging markets bounce, on equal […]

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Notes You Need for September 28: Inflation, Italy budget woes, Intel capital spending, Tesla CEO Musk charged by SEC, House adjoins with no farm bill, Facebook hacked, GOLD, sports betting

In my daily trawling through the market I come upon lots of tidbits of knowledge that I think are important to investors but that don't justify a full post. I've decided to start compiling these notes here each day in a kind of running mini blog that I'm calling Notes You Need. I launched this new […]

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Worth watching: Is something the matter with financials

Here's the historical wisdom: Bank stocks go up when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. The logic is simple and rather compelling--when the Fed raises interest rates banks see the rate at which they can lend out money--the long term interest rate rise faster than the short-term rates that the Fed directly controls. Banks borrow […]

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Is it time to re-allocate your ETF portfolio?

Is it time to re-allocate your ETF portfolio? It's certainly time to ask this question. The September 26 meeting of Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee made a December 19 interest rate increase just about a done deal. In the dot plot released after that meeting, the Fed also signaled its intention--pending news, of course--of raising […]

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Mortgage rates and odds of December interest rate increase climb after Fed meeting

Yesterday's meeting of the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee ended with the committee raising the short-term Fed Funds benchmark rate 25 basis points and signaling an intention of raising rates again in December and then three more times in 2019. Yesterday the market thought the odds of another interest rates increase in December were about […]

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Bad news on U.S. exports and trade deficit starts to bring down GDP forecasts

The U.S. trade deficit in goods grew in August to $75.8 billion, the widest in six months, as exports of food, industrial supplies and autos declined, the Commerce Department reported today. In addition imports of autos and consumer goods increased in the month. A separate report on durable goods Thursday showed that corporate investment fell […]

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Fed raises interest rates, locks in December increase, signals 3 moves in 2019

No surprise on a September interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve today--but some very aggressive signals on policy into 2019. The 25 basis point increase today raised the Fed Funds rate to a target of 2% to 2.25%. The economy remains solid;  job growth has been strong; and inflation is near the central bank's […]

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U.S.-China trade war expands beyond tariffs

This morning in a speech before a session of the United Nations Security Council that he hosted President Donald Trump charged that China is attempting to interfere in the 2018 midterm congressional elections and alleged Beijing seeks to help his opponents. The President was apparently arguing from an advertising supplement China placed in the Des […]

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