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Archive for November, 2018

Trick or Trend: Does the Fed’s caution on interest rate increases in 2019 mean gold is coming back?

Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Friday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. Gold futures settled at $1,226 an ounce on Friday, November 30. Gold is still down […]

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China’s banking system springing leaks all over

Take your pick. Either story shows the deep stress in China's banking system at a time when China's economy is already slowing. Story 1: After trying to regulate the Peer to Peer lending industry, Beijing has decided to shut down most of the $176 billion market, according to Bloomberg. Small and medium-size Peer to Peer lending platforms […]

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OPEC advisory group recommends cut of 1.3 million barrels a day to December 6 oil cartel summit

It's only an advisory group with no decision-making power, but the recommendation from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Economic Commission Board is the first step in changing production policy at OPEC & Friends. Today the group told OPEC oil ministers, who will make the actual decision on December 6, that the oil market is […]

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On eve of Trump-Xi talks China’s economy continues to slump, overnight data say

China's purchasing managers index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector continued to slump in November, overnight data showed. The index dropped to 50, the level that marks the divide between expansion (above 50) and contraction (below 50.) The new export orders sub-index improved slightly although remaining in contraction territory for the sixth straight month. Everybody agrees […]

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Fed minutes from November meeting second Powell comments yesterday on slower interest rate increases

Released Thursday afternoon, the minutes from the November 7-8 Federal Reserve meeting confirmed the on-going debate at the U.S. central bank about how close benchmark interest rates are to neutral, the level that neither stimulates nor depresses economic activity. It was still a minority view but the minutes noted that a number of meeting participants […]

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Stocks tread water ahead of Trump-Xi trade talks

Investors in U.S. stocks couldn't figure out how to position themselves ahead of the Saturday meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping so finally stocks didn't move much at all on the day. The Standard & Poor's 500, which opened the day at 2727.97, traded as low as 2723.40 before closing at 2737.80. It's […]

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Today the U.S. economy is looking a tad vulnerable

Yesterday, Wednesday November 28, U.S. stocks saw a huge bounce with the Standard & Poor's 500 climbing 2.3% on a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman "suggesting" that the Fed might slow the speed and limit the number of interest rate increases in 2019. Today, investors--besides worrying about what might or might not come out of […]

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Jubak Picks member Salesforce beats on earnings, raises guidance for 2019 and 2020

Salesforce (CRM) started today to the upside based on last night's earnings beat of 11 cents a share. Salesforce shares were up 4.57% as of noon New York time today. And then came the market-wide bounce after Fed chair Jerome Powell's speech suggesting that the Federal Reserve was thinking about raising interest rates less aggressively […]

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Fed’s Powell speaks softly; stocks roar higher

Sometimes the market hears what it wants to hear and then storms higher (or lower) on what is little more than a hint. In the short run that doesn't much matter since the oftentimes huge gains are real and investors can and do take them to the bank. In the somewhat longer run, markets often […]

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IMF warns on slowing global growth ahead of G20 summit

The ink is barely dry on the October 9 World Economic Update from the International Monetary Fund, which warned of the dangers of slowing global growth ahead. But the IMF is at it again. The fund has downgraded its forecast from the already downgraded October forecast ahead of this weekend's meeting of the Group of […]

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