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Archive for February, 2019

So what’s it gonna be in U.S.-China trade talks? Historic agreement? Middling deal? Failure?

The Trump administration isn't making it any easier to handicap the results of the U.S.-China trade talks. Yesterday U.S. trade representative Robert Lighthizer tried to walk back expectations for the talks. There's not even an agreement on a Memorandum of Understanding on currency. The White House has asked that China pledge not to devalue its […]

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Today’s economic numbers from U.S. (good) and China (bad)

The first (advanced) estimate of U.S. GDP for the fourth quarter showed the U.S. economy growing at a 2.6% annual rate. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast 2.3% growth. For all of 2018 the economy grew at a real rate (that is after inflation) of 2.9% in 2018 versus the 2.2% real growth in 2017. […]

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Making Wal-Mart my No. 6 pick in my Special Report: 10 stocks for an earnings recession, and adding it to my Jubak Picks Portfolio

Today February 27 I'm adding Wal-Mart (WMT) to my Jubak Picks Portfolio and making it the sixth pick in my Special Report: 10 stocks for an earning recession. Only 25% of Wal-Mart's revenue currently come from outside the United States--a plus in view of my projection of an earnings recession in the first three quarters […]

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China rally or speculative balloon?

As of today, February 27, the Shanghai Composite is up 13.53% in the last month. The beginning of a sustained turnaround or another speculative balloon ready to pop? It's too early to tell, unfortunately. The factors that could be inflating a speculative balloon are clear enough. Optimism that the current U.S.-China trade truce will turn […]

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Good news on the debt ceiling: Government not likely to run out of money until October!

The legislation that suspended the debt ceiling limit on borrowing  by the federal government expires on March 2. The likelihood that Congress will put aside its other conflicts and extend that suspension or pass a clean increase in the debt ceiling is just about nil. But--and here's the good news--the government will run out of […]

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Appeals court rules AT&T acquisition of TimeWarner can go ahead–why isn’t the stock up more today?

The U.S. Appeals Court in Washington ruled today that AT&T's (T) $85 billion takeover of Time Warner (now known as WarnerMedia) could go ahead. The court said in a 35-page opinion that the Justice Department had failed to establish that a lower-court judge had made a clear error when he rejected the government's case to […]

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Government action on drug prices seems far, far away

The format was familiar: Seven CEOs sit in front of a Senate Committee probing their industry's business practices. But whereas a Congressional hearing a decade ago marked a key moment in what was a costly public reckoning for the tobacco industry, today's hearing produced little more than a consensus among Senators that drug pricing is […]

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It’s official: White House extends March 1 deadline in U.S.-China trade talks.

Citing substantial progress, President Donald Trump has extended the March 1 deadline for reaching agreement on a U.S.-China trade agreement and heading off a jump to 25% in U.S. tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese exports. “The U.S. has made substantial progress in our trade talks with China on important structural issues including intellectual property […]

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Making Danaher my No. 5 pick in my Special Report: 10 stocks for an earnings recession, and raising target price in my Jubak Picks Portfolio

I had some doubts about adding Danaher (DHR) to my Special Report: 10 picks for an earnings recession. Did the stock have enough of a catalyst to carry it upward during the slowdown in earnings predicted for at least the first three quarters of 2019? Yes, the company was selling off its dental unit, which […]

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VMC is my fourth earnings recession Special Report pick

If politicians are to be believed Vulcan Materials (VMC) would be my perfect earnings recession stock. Revenue and earnings look on a steady uphill trend in 209, after carving out that track in 2018. The company's business is almost totally domestic. And there's even a catalyst--if politician can be believed. Vice-President Mike Pence told the […]

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