March 31, 2019 | Daily JAM |
...data, data and more data on the health of the U.S. economy with the week ending with Friday's job report for March. The forecast from economists surveyed by Bloomberg calls for payrolls to climb to 175,000 after a very disappointing addition of just 20,000 jobs in...
March 30, 2019 | Daily JAM, Friday Trick or Trend, JD |
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Saturday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. We've heard...
March 29, 2019 | Daily JAM, FANG, HP, PXD |
Once upon a time investors and traders wanted to own the shares of U.S. oil shale producers and shares of the oil service companies that sold them equipment and services. U.S. oil production from oil shales--especially the low-cost Permian Basin--was soaring. Oil...
March 28, 2019 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
It's all my fault. I go away for two days to tour colleges with my daughter, and global bond markets soar as everybody in the world decides to seek safety simultaneously. Today's pause has very little to do with my return to my desk. The rise in bond prices has been...
March 28, 2019 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
Oil prices twitched lower on the weekly report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showing crude stockpiles growing by 2.8 million barrels last week, well ahead of analyst estimates. Prices didn't slide very far, however, since the market ascribed much of...
March 28, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
On the one hand, the revision that takes fourth quarter U.S. GDP growth down to 2.2% from a previous estimate of 2.6% feeds right into financial market fears about a slowing economy and a looming recession. On the other hand, it looks like the financial markets...
March 26, 2019 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Special Reports |
That famous futures trader Marc Antony famously said "Beware the Ides of April." Okay, the guy had a mixed performance record. Short Brutus but long Cleopatra. But his advice about April 2019 is good. The Ides of April fall on the 13th of the month. And what promises...
March 25, 2019 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
The figures are short-term and tentative but the trend isn't good. Global trade volume fell 1.8% in the three months through January from the previous three months, according to the World Trade Monitor from the statistics office of the Netherlands. That's the biggest...
March 24, 2019 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
... which market turns up this week. Last week's interest rate announcement and economic forecasts from the Federal Reserve AND the price action in the U.S. stock market left us poised between two alternative paths forward. In one--the one where we ended the week on...
March 22, 2019 | Daily JAM, Friday Trick or Trend |
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Friday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. President...
March 22, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
It was always implicit in the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday that all interest increase in 2019 were off the table and that the central bank would end its $50 billion a month balance sheet run off in September. Yeah, lower interest rates are a boost to stock...
March 21, 2019 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
Let's remind ourselves of exactly how big a policy u-turn the Federal Reserve has steered in the last three months. In December the Fed was looking at 2 interest rate increases in 2019 and an announcement of an end to its balance sheet run off by, maybe, September. In...