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Archive for March, 2019

Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…

...data, data and more data on the health of the U.S. economy with the week ending with Friday's job report for March. The forecast from economists surveyed by Bloomberg calls for payrolls to climb to 175,000 after a very disappointing addition of just 20,000 jobs in February. Markets shook off that February number as an […]

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Trick or Trend: Real progress in U.S.-China trade talks?

Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Saturday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. We've heard so much of this before that it's all too easy to be skeptical--but […]

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The oil sector turns upside down–which is why I’m adding three oil stocks to my 10 Most Dangerous Stocks for the upcoming earnings season

Once upon a time investors and traders wanted to own the shares of U.S. oil shale producers and shares of the oil service companies that sold them equipment and services. U.S. oil production from oil shales--especially the low-cost Permian Basin--was soaring. Oil shale companies could raise all the money they needed from the banks and […]

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The world’s bond markets stop to think about whether the rally has gone too far

It's all my fault. I go away for two days to tour colleges with my daughter, and global bond markets soar as everybody in the world decides to seek safety simultaneously. Today's pause has very little to do with my return to my desk. The rise in bond prices has been so rapid that bond […]

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Crude rally pauses on higher than expected U.S. inventories, strong dollar, Nigeria production

Oil prices twitched lower on the weekly report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showing crude stockpiles growing by 2.8 million barrels last week, well ahead of analyst estimates. Prices didn't slide very far, however, since the market ascribed much of the build to a temporary closure of the Houston Ship Channel and a resulting […]

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Slow happens: Fourth quarter GDP growth gets a trim

On the one hand, the revision that takes fourth quarter U.S. GDP growth down to 2.2% from a previous estimate of 2.6% feeds right into financial market fears about a slowing economy and a looming recession. On the other hand, it looks like the financial markets already had that lower figure priced into the turmoil. […]

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Special Report: 10 Most Dangerous Stocks in Earnings Season–first nine picks

That famous futures trader Marc Antony famously said "Beware the Ides of April." Okay, the guy had a mixed performance record. Short Brutus but long Cleopatra. But his advice about April 2019 is good. The Ides of April fall on the 13th of the month. And what promises to be a wild earnings season begins […]

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Global trade growth continues to slow in three months through January

The figures are short-term and tentative but the trend isn't good. Global trade volume fell 1.8% in the three months through January from the previous three months, according to the World Trade Monitor from the statistics office of the Netherlands. That's the biggest drop since May 2009 and the global financial crisis. To compile the […]

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Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, Watch to see…

... which market turns up this week. Last week's interest rate announcement and economic forecasts from the Federal Reserve AND the price action in the U.S. stock market left us poised between two alternative paths forward. In one--the one where we ended the week on Friday--economic growth is so slow that corporate earnings are in […]

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Trick or trend: White House new pick for the Fed continues effort to politicize central bank

Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Friday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. President Donald Trump announced Friday that he would nominate Stephen Moore to fill an open […]

To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the site. And we'll throw in the first week free! If you change your mind during that first week, just cancel your subscription from your profile page, and you won't be billed anything.