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Archive for April, 2019

Buffett gets paid to turn Chevron/Occidental battle over Anadarko upside down–but what about Occidental shareholders?

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) has brought Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) into its battle with Chevron (CVX) for control of Permian-Basin-rich Anadarko Petroleum (APC). Up until the entry of Buffett, Chevron had the inside edge even though it had offered a lower price of $33 billion in cash and stock for Anadarko. That company's board […]

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Is China the Bizarro Goldilocks market with more downside ahead?

We're all used to the U.S. Goldilocks market. Growth is just enough but not so hot that it spurs inflation or convinces the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. And so stocks keep climbing. China has its own version of the Goldilocks market--but it's a significantly different version of the fairytale. In this story growth […]

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Another analyst capitulates to “fear of being left out”

If this market runs out of bears, I think it's in trouble. And today one of the market's few remaining bears capitulated to the rally. Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy Christopher Harvey hiked his year-end price target for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to 3,088 from 2,665. The index closed at 2,983 on […]

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What Intel’s guidance cut says about Intel, chip stocks

Shares of Intel (INTC) continued their post-earnings slide today, dropping about 2.52% to $51.11. On April 24, the day before there company reported first quarter 2019 earnings, the stock closed at $58.72. That's a drop of 12.96% in less than a week. I think three things are behind that drop. One is related to a […]

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More of the same in today’s economic data: low inflation, good growth in consumer spending, but lagging incomes

Put today's numbers on the economy together with those in Friday's first quarter GDP report and the picture that emerges is of a U.S. economy growing at s very solid rate with declining inflation. But where the trends on consumer incomes and spending suggest, maybe, trouble down the road. This morning the Bureau of Economic […]

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Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…

... to be drowning in economic data. The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday, May 1, isn't even the high point of the data week. The U.S. central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged so it's Chair Jerome Powell's press conference after the meeting that will draw most of the attention. […]

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Trick or Trend: Bad consumer debt continues to increase

Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (running on Saturday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. On Friday, April 26, Bloomberg reported that bad credit card debt rose to the highest level […]

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Amazon signals slowdown ahead; Wall Street doesn’t believe it

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GDP growth surprises at 3.2% in first quarter; economists question sustainability

The U.S. economy grew at a 3.2% real rate in the first quarter. That's substantially stronger than the 2.2% growth in the fourth quarter and way above projections for 1.9% growth among economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Inflation remained very subdued with the GDP Deflator showing inflation at 0.9%. Inflation by this measure was 1.7% in […]

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Renewed bid from Occidental for Anadarko adds heat to Permian M&A

The battle for control of Anadarko Petroleum (APC) and its huge position in the oil shale geologies of the Permian Basis isn't over. Yesterday, Wednesday,  Occidential Petroleum (OXY) made a renewed bid to acquire Anadarko. The 50%/50% stock and cash offer from Occidental would value Anadarko at $38 billion. Chevron's offer of 75% stock and 25% […]

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