August 30, 2019 | Daily JAM, EUM, Volatility |
As I wrote in my August 26 post "Risk and uncertainty soared on Friday--and not for the reasons you might first think" I think that Friday's retaliatory tariffs from China and then the Trump administration's retaliation to the retaliation--plus rhetoric from President...
August 29, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Solid gains for U.S. stocks today, August 29. The Standard & Poor's 500 closed up 1.27%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average ahead 1.25; and the NASDAQ Composite gained 1.48%. But the lost some steam at the end of the day. But this was a low volume day ahead of a...
August 29, 2019 | Daily JAM, QSR, Stock Alerts |
Today I'm raising my target price for Restaurant Brands International (QSR) because I think the new Popeye's chicken sandwich has legs. A social media storm has accompanied the introduction of a new chicken sandwich at Popeye's to compete with Chick-fil-A that has led...
August 28, 2019 | Daily JAM |
This morning the U.S. Energy Information Administration surprised the markets with the report of a bigger than expected decline in oil stockpiles. Crude inventories fell by 10 million barrels for the week ended August 16. The prior week showed a drawdown of 2.7...
August 28, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Volatility |
Recessions have a huge "sentiment" component in their causation. Consumers and CEOs look around at the economy, assess their feelings about the future economy, and decide that the prudent course is to cut back on spending to prepare for the coming economic downturn....
August 27, 2019 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
With the proviso that no one is inside the head of Chinese President Xi Jinping (except Xi himself) and that this is all speculative analysis which carries it's own bias, I think it's worth taking seriously reports that Xi may have a Trump problem that makes it almost...
August 27, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
This morning you could hear the gears whirring as Wall Street strategists tried to position their portfolios so they were hedged against U.S-China trade war risk but also positioned to catch any bounce on good news on the trade front and ahead of the September 18...
August 26, 2019 | Daily JAM |
The Chinese decision on Friday of last week to retaliate to earlier U.S. tariffs by slapping a 10% duty on $75 billion in U.S. exports to China certainty ratcheted up the financial market and economic uncertainty. They took the current U.S.-China trade war to a new...
August 26, 2019 | Daily JAM |
The U.S.-China trade war continues to erode business confidence in Germany. Business confidence in the country, home to Europe's largest economy, fell to its weakest level in almost seven years as a deepening manufacturing slump put the German economy on the verge of...
August 26, 2019 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Volatility |
This morning President Donald Trump told reporters at the Group of Seven summit that over the weekend there had been significant progress in negotiations to end the U.S.-China trade war. “We’ve gotten two calls and very, very good calls,” Trump told reporters at the...
August 25, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The Standard & Poor's 500 has twice bounced back from big drops in August. Back in the first few days of the month, the index fell to 2,844--before bouncing back 3.3% in the next three sessions. A week later the index fell to 2,840 and then bounced back strongly....
August 25, 2019 | Daily JAM |
... financial markets to ignore very clear warnings from global central banks at the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole conference this weekend. Central bankers, including the Fed's Jerome Powell, were very clear in warning that central bank monetary policy tools were not...