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Archive for August, 2019

Step #3 Adding more risk hedges in my Special Report on getting ready for the next Big One

As I wrote in my August 26 post "Risk and uncertainty soared on Friday--and not for the reasons you might first think" I think that Friday's retaliatory tariffs from China and then the Trump administration's retaliation to the retaliation--plus rhetoric from President Donald Trump that asked if former good friend Xi Jinping was as big […]

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I wish today’s gains were more convincing

Solid gains for U.S. stocks today, August 29. The Standard & Poor's 500 closed up 1.27%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average ahead 1.25; and the NASDAQ Composite gained 1.48%. But the lost some steam at the end of the day. But this was a low volume day ahead of a 3-day market holiday. But the […]

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Riding the Popeye’s chicken sandwich higher; raising target price for Restaurant Brands International

Today I'm raising my target price for Restaurant Brands International (QSR) because I think the new Popeye's chicken sandwich has legs. A social media storm has accompanied the introduction of a new chicken sandwich at Popeye's to compete with Chick-fil-A that has led to the sandwich selling out after massive sales. The chicken couldn't have […]

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Market rides energy shares higher

This morning the U.S. Energy Information Administration surprised the markets with the report of a bigger than expected decline in oil stockpiles. Crude inventories fell by 10 million barrels for the week ended August 16. The prior week showed a drawdown of 2.7 million barrels. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate gained 1.82% to $55.93 a […]

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Recession expectations slowly climbing–slowly driving odds of a recession higher

Recessions have a huge "sentiment" component in their causation. Consumers and CEOs look around at the economy, assess their feelings about the future economy, and decide that the prudent course is to cut back on spending to prepare for the coming economic downturn. Which, of course, brings about the slowdown that they feared. And which […]

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It’s just analysis, but reports say China’s Xi has a Trump trust problem

With the proviso that no one is inside the head of Chinese President Xi Jinping (except Xi himself) and that this is all speculative analysis which carries it's own bias, I think it's worth taking seriously reports that Xi may have a Trump problem that makes it almost certain that the U.S.-China trade war will […]

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Markets try to have it both ways in the morning and then throw in the towel on risk

This morning you could hear the gears whirring as Wall Street strategists tried to position their portfolios so they were hedged against U.S-China trade war risk but also positioned to catch any bounce on good news on the trade front and ahead of the September 18 Federal Reserve meeting. That produced an odd market structure […]

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Risk and uncertainty soared on Friday–and not for the reasons you might first think

The Chinese decision on Friday of last week to retaliate to earlier U.S. tariffs by slapping a 10% duty on $75 billion in U.S. exports to China certainty ratcheted up the financial market and economic uncertainty. They took the current U.S.-China trade war to a new level. The Trump administration decision to raise the 25% […]

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Other signs of global economic stress keep coming in

The U.S.-China trade war continues to erode business confidence in Germany. Business confidence in the country, home to Europe's largest economy, fell to its weakest level in almost seven years as a deepening manufacturing slump put the German economy on the  verge of a recession. The Bundesbank calculates that German GDP contracted in the second […]

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Is it true and does it matter to the financial markets?

This morning President Donald Trump told reporters at the Group of Seven summit that over the weekend there had been significant progress in negotiations to end the U.S.-China trade war. “We’ve gotten two calls and very, very good calls,” Trump told reporters at the Group of Seven summit. “Very productive calls. They mean business. They […]

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