ALB

Today it looks more like a bear market rally

Today it looks more like a bear market rally

In my weekend Saturday Night Quarterback I said that this week would, probably, answer the question of whether Friday’s big bounce was just a bounce, the start of a buy on the dip rally, or even a bear market rally with a bit of staying power. Two days into the week I think the market action is moving in favor of a bear market rally, one of those often quite powerful upside moves that punctuate extended bear markets.

U.S. to ban Russian oil and natural gas–Brent hits $131 a barrel, WTI $127

U.S. to ban Russian oil and natural gas–Brent hits $131 a barrel, WTI $127

The United States will ban imports of oil and natural gas from Russia, President Biden announced Tuesday. U.S. allies in Europe also announced action on the energy front with a plan to cut natural gas imports from Russia by two-thirds in 2022. Even though the White House has said that the long-lead time on the ban would give importers and consumers time to find other sources by the end of 2022, oil futures soared today with the price of West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. crude benchmark, climbing to $126.98 a barrel, up 6.35%, for April delivery as of 12:30 p.m. in New York. International benchmark Brent creek rose 6.52%to $131.24 a barrel for April delivery.

Please watch my new YouTube video : Steady vs. hot hands

Please watch my new YouTube video : Steady vs. hot hands

I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and second YouTube video “Strong hands vs. hot hands” went up today. Today I’m looking at a few stocks that exemplify what most experienced traders know: some hands are steady, and some are not. So when Nvidia announced this week that it expected to see supply chain issues (despite beating earnings and raising guidance), the stock fell. Similar things happened to chip-making equipment supplier Applied Materials and Albemarle, the lithium maker. I’m taking this opportunity to add some of these stocks into my portfolios. What about you?

In today’s rally everyone loves risk–which isn’t necessarily a good thing

In today’s rally everyone loves risk–which isn’t necessarily a good thing

If you look only at the major indexes, today was a mildly positive day. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed up 0.30%, although the Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat. The NASDAQ Composite gained 0.73% at the close and the NASDAQ 100 added 0.77%. The small cap Russell 2000 ended ahead 0.34%. But take a look at some of the frankly outlandish gains in the market’s hottest sectors. It’s not difficult to find gains of 5% or more today

Will a 5% drop bring out the buy on the dippers? Not, I’d argue, until the People’s Bank makes a move

Will a 5% drop bring out the buy on the dippers? Not, I’d argue, until the People’s Bank makes a move

The Standard & Poor’s 500 fell another 1.70% today and it’s now down 3.94% from the September 2 high. As the index dropped last week (again) and over the weekend, lots of Wall Street money managers said Hey, stocks were over-valued and news from Beijing and Washington (and places in between) is negative, but if stocks drop 5% we will be buyers. It looks like might get to test that conviction sooner than anyone expected. Which way will things break on another decline?

So far it’s just a typical September slump

So far it’s just a typical September slump

I found myself humming “I scare myself” this morning as the market continued its September selling. The Dan Hicks and the Hot Licks song pretty much sums up the market action this morning. We all know that stocks go down in September so we’re sending stocks downward. And we all know that September 17 is the Big Bad Day in the month so it’s unreasonable to expect a turn in sentiment before that date. But so far, I’d note, the selling seems “orderly” with the usual candidates bucking the trend and showing up in the green. It’s when those still in the green stocks start tumbling that I’ll really start to worry.

Senate passes infrastructure bill heavy on traditional road, rail, and water spending–so guess which stocks went up today?

Senate passes infrastructure bill heavy on traditional road, rail, and water spending–so guess which stocks went up today?

The $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill that the Senate passed today–roughly half of that represents new spending–still faces a tough go in the House of Representatives where progressive Democrats have criticized the measure as light on dollars to fight global climate change. That spending has been pushed into a second infrastructure bill, which would also include money for expanding Medicare and improving access to childcare among other “social” infrastructure spending, which the Senate actually took up today. Most political pundits think that efforts to pass a “social” infrastructure bill using reconciliation will be enough to secure all the votes needed to pass the traditional infrastructure bill in the House. The bill passed today would include more than $110 billion to replace and repair roads, bridges and highways, and $66 billion to boost passenger and freight rail. The plan includes an additional $55 billion to address problems in the U.S. water supply such as continued use of lead pipes despite conclusive evidence that lead in water pipes leads to cognitive impairment in children. It allocates $65 billion to modernize the country’s power grid and $7.5 billion to build out a national network of electric-vehicle charging stations. The bill earmarks $47 billion to respond to wildfires, droughts, coastal erosion, heat waves and other climate crises.