Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Monday), For the week ahead watch…
Will the restrictions India slapped on gold and silver imports in an effort defend the rupee send precious metals tumbling again in the week ahead.
GDXJ
The Fed looks to be planning for slowly growing inflation–as the only way out of a fiscal disaster
Watch what they do and not what the say is always good advice for investors trying to figure out what’s going on in the financial markets.
Sure, the Federal Reserve has said that it has a target of no more than 2% inflation. And Jerome Powell & Co. has professed their disappointment that inflation remains so stubbornly elevated above that target,
Since the start of the year, the Fed has expanded its balance sheet by $170 billion. That translates to a staggering $510 billion annualized run-rate. The Fed is currently expanding its balance sheet at almost 8% a year during a period when the U.S. economy is supposedly not in a recession.At the same time, U.S. money supply M2 grew by $1.65 trillion in 2025, which is roughly 6.3% over the year.
Why gold is a long-term winning and safe bet
February The argument for owning gold for the long term comes down to simple supply and demand. Unlike the world’s supply of fiat currencies where supply will soar as the wold’s indebted countries–just about everyone–print more money to pay their bills, the global supply of gold is increasing by just 1% a year or less. Unlike demand for the U.S. dollar, world’s fiat money flagship currency–where every day more investors want to hedge their risks by diversifying out of the dollar, demand for gold from global central banks is climbing and Wall Street strategist have modestly but noticeably increased their recommended allocation to gold for individual portfolios.
Saturday Night Quarterback says, on a Sunday, for the week ahead expect…
I expect the huge 2025 rally in gold and silver to finish the year strong. But with the possibility of volatility as institutional investors try to game the next move in precious metals. In case you’re not up to date on this rally, gold was up 76% for 2025 as of December 26. Silver was up 160%. Gains like those inevitably fill investors heads with thoughts of corrections and reversions to the mean. But I think selling now is premature.
I’m buying gold on the dip
If you have been looking for the moment to add to your exposure to gold, I think this 5% dip is a good opportunity.
Central banks are buying gold–the gold rally has room to run
Foreign central bank holdings of the precious metal have topped holdings of U.S. Treasurys for the first time since 1996, according to Bloomberg data
Wall Street sees gold going higher on rising buying from global central banks
Today Goldman Sachs Group raised its year-end target for gold to $3,100 an ounce. Central banks are buying gold at a faster than expected pace and flows into gold ETFs are accelerating.
Jobs surprise–economy delivers stronger than expected performance in December
In December U.S. economy in December added the most jobs since March and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell. Nonfarm payrolls increased 256,000, exceeding all but one forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% from November, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed Friday. For 2024 as a whole, the economy added 2.2 million jobs—-below the 3 million increase in 2023 but above the 2 million created in 2019. The data almost certainly assured that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates at its January 29 meeting. As of 11 a.m. New York time, the yield on the 10-year Treasury had climbed another 5 basis points to 4.74%.
China’s deflation problem got worse in December
China’s consumer price index rose 0.1% in December from a year earlier, in line with the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Factory deflation extended into a 27th month, though the producer price index recorded a slower drop of 2.3%, the National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday. For the full year, consumer prices only inched up 0.2% from 2023, well short of the 1.1% gain economists had predicted at the beginning of 2024.
Fed’s December minutes another nail in the coffin for early interest rate cuts
In minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December 17-18 meeting released on Wednesday, January 8, Federal Reserve officials clearly decided to move more slowly on cutting interest rates in the quarters ahead. “Participants indicated that the committee was at or near the point at which it would be appropriate to slow the pace of policy easing,” minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee showed. “Many participants suggested that a variety of factors underlined the need for a careful approach to monetary policy decisions over coming quarters.” Please note the reference to “quarters” and not “months.”
More bad news for stocks from the bond market today
The 20-year Treasury bond, a laggard on the government debt curve since its re-introduction in 2020, topped 5% Wednesday for the first time since 2023. The move looks to be fueled by concern that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies on tariffs and tax cuts will lead to wider deficits and rekindle inflation.
Stocks fall as they begin to price in no rate cut until July
The Institute for Supply Management’s index of services advanced 2 points to 54.1 last month. That show of strength in the economy–readings above 50 indicate expansion–was enough to push stocks lower as the markets began to price in a delay in the next interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve until July The measure of prices paid for materials and services rose more than 6 points to 64.4, suggesting that the drop in the inflation rate in the service sector–about 70% of the U.S. economy–might be over.
Jim’s Stock Alerts
LLYEli Lilly and Company
COLDAmericold Realty Trust, Inc.
WMTWalmart Inc.
NVDANVIDIA Corporation
CMICummins Inc.
PAASPan American Silver Corp.
TBFProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF
IGOViShares International Treasury Bond ETF
FXYInvesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust
UUPInvesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
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