July 19, 2023 | Daily JAM, Videos |
Today’s video is Earnings: It’s All About Surprise. Good news is good, but it doesn’t necessarily move markets. On Friday, July 14, JPMorgan Chase came out with a stellar earnings report–but other stocks in the sector moved down on a belief that these banks wouldn’t match JPMorgans good news. However, SURPRISE! On July 18, Bank of America came out with a very good earnings report, and the stock popped by 4.2%. Bank of America surprised the market with a big bump from its Wall Street trading operations. On the surprise, Bank of America actually moved the entire banking index up 2.29%. On the negative side, regional bank PNC Bank surprised negatively with a cut to its full year guidance from 6-8% to 5-6%, and the stock, of course, fell. (Early in the day although it recovered by the close.) Keep all this in mind as we head into earnings season for technology companies, where expectations are often very high. Apple is one of the first to report and will set the tone for the second quarter which is typically a weaker quarter in the technology sector.T
March 14, 2023 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Yesterday, March 14, Moody’s Investors Service placed First Republic Bank (FRC) and five other US lenders on review for downgrade because of worries over uninsured deposit funding and unrealized losses in their asset portfolios. (the other banks include Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL), Intrust Financial, UMB Financial (UMBF)., Zions Bancorp (ZION), and Comerica (CMA).) But these smaller banks aren’t the companies in the sector sitting on the biggest bond portfolios with unrealized losses.
October 14, 2022 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, TFC |
I don’t like the economic and financial environment looming ahead for banks. I see bad loans rising with a need to reserve more against bad loans. Slowing economies aren’t good for loan demand or credit card delinquencies either. So I’m taking advantage of this moment to sell Truist Financial out of this portfolio in spite of the stock’s hefty dividend. I’ve got a loss on this position of 4.07% since I added it to this portfolio on June 13, 2022. The stock is down 22.19% for 2022 to date as of the close on October 12.
March 1, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
With Russian troops laying siege to Ukraine’s two largest cities, I certainly don’t blame financial markets for a high degree of anxiety. After all investors and traders are also looking at the consequences of massive sanctions piled on Russian banks including the country’s central bank, disruptions of the global grain trade, and energy shortages here, there, and everywhere. The selling today is fundamentally different from yesterday’s (as well as being greater). Some of the selling is an attempt to gain shelter from the Russia war and sanctions storm. Airlines stocks, which will take a hit from higher prices for jet fuel and any drop in the appetite for flying, were down with American Airlines (AL) off 5.57% and United Airlines (UAL) lower by 5.74%. Some of the selling seems a reasonable guess at where there might be problems. U.S. banks are down heavily even though various experts say they have little or no Russia exposure. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) was down 3.77% and Bank of America (BAC) was off 3.91%. But some of the selling is just selling, either to reduce risk or to raise cash, without any specific connection to Russia and the Russia sanctions. Tesla (TSLA) was down 0.70% at the close as and construction aggregate producer Vulcan Materials (VMC) was significantly lower by 3.86%. Fewer states will repave their roads because of the sanctions on Russia’s central bank?
January 8, 2022 | Daily JAM |
Big banks will start to report December quarter earnings. this week. And investors looking for reassurance from big earnings gains aren’t going to be reassured by the initial reports. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) kicks off the earnings parade before the open on Friday, January 14
October 11, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Big bank earnings begin on Wednesday and Thursday. Unfortunately, won’t tell us anything useful about the margin pressures from rising global supply chain shipping costs or higher prices for raw materials. Those are the factors that could produce a quarter’s worth of warnings and unpleasant surprises once third quarter earnings season starts on October 13. But to learn about the effect of those margin pressures on earnings we’re going to have to wait for reports from the consumer and industrial companies that are on the front lines of these trends.
June 29, 2021 | C, Daily JAM, KBWB, Morning Briefing, USB |
That didn’t take long. On Thursday the Federal Reserve reported that all 23 big banks tested in its annual stress test, passed. Which means that the last remaining restrictions on dividend increases and share buybacks are now history. Yesterday big banks started to announce dividend increases
April 16, 2021 | BAC, C, Daily JAM, Dividend Income, JPM, Jubak Picks, WFC |
Blow-out first quarter earnings results from the big banks didn’t produce huge gains this week–and that’s actually reassuring to me because it says a significant number of investors are still paying attention to fundamentals
March 30, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
You can judge the stock market’s mood pretty accurately today, Tuesday, March 30, from just a few price movements. Take a look at the performance of bank stocks, the small cap Russell 2000, the CBOE VIX “fear index,” and technology stocks to see where we’re likely to be headed for the rest of this week.
March 25, 2021 | C, Daily JAM, Dividend Income, KBWB, Perfect Five-ETFs, USB |
U.S. banks that pass their next stress tests will be allowed to raise their dividends after June 30, the Federal Reserve said today, March 25. The Fed will also lift any remaining restrictions on stock buybacks.
March 18, 2021 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks |
I’d like to add more exposure to the bank sector. But what? At this stage in the bank stock rally, I’m looking for well-run banks that will be able to take advantage of the increase in the yield spread to add to earnings. (As opposed to earlier in the cycle, when I added Citigroup because things were getting a lot better even for not-so-well run banks.) Bank of America (BAC) is one possibility. But the stock is up 25.80% for 2021 as of March 18 and up 32.26% in the last month. I think, instead, that I’ll go with U.S. Bancorp (USB), the country’s largest regional bank. U.S. Bancorp is up 16.96% for 2021 to date and up “only” 21.27% in the last month. It also comes with a 3.8% dividend (well above the 1.90% paid by Bank of America) that will give investors some downside protection. I’m adding that stock to my Jubak Picks Portfolio on Friday.
March 18, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
After not moving very much yesterday on the actual news from the Federal Reserve-the Standard & Poor’s 500 finished up 0.29% and the NASDSQ Composite closed higher by 0.40%, today, March 18, markets decided they really didn’t like the Fed’s stance on inflation, interest rates, and bond yields.
A day after Fed chair Jerome Powell said the Fed wasn’t much concerned about either the projects for higher inflation or the rise in Treasury yields, the yield on the 10-year Treasury spiked to 1.71% at the close. (It was at 1.74% as 1 p.m. in New York.) The closing yield amounted to a jump of 7 basis points in the yield on the benchmark Treasury issue. The yield on the 10-year Treasury is now up an astonishing 42 basis points in a month. And as has been the case in 2021 and as you might expect, stocks sold off with high multiple, high momentum technology shares taking the worst beating.
