November 2, 2023 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Long Term, Morning Briefing, Top 50 Stocks |
So let’s see how the market takes this tomorrow.
Today stocks staged an impressive upside more. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed up 1.89% and the NASDAQ Composite ended the day 1.78% higher. The small cap Russell 2000 was the day’s best performer with a win of 2.67% Tomorrow? Well, the October jobs report released at 8:30 will certainly help set the tone for the day with a weak report likely to reinforce the belief that the Federal Reserve is done aiding interest rates. But given how much of the recent bounce has been fueled by a return of optimism about technology stocks, it’s likely that Apple’s disappointing results, announced after the close of trading today, Thursday, November 2, will determine the direction of the trend.
October 14, 2022 | Daily JAM |
After climbing 2.60% yesterday, the Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 2.37% today. Same story with the Dow Jones Industrial Average–up 2.83% yesterday, but down 1.34% today. And the NASDAQ Composite–up 2.23% yesterday and down 3.08% today. And the small-cap Russell 2000–up 2.41% yesterday and down 2.66% today.
October 5, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundredth-ninety-second YouTube video “A Bounce to a Rally” went up today. To turn a bounce into a bear market rally, we need two things- but before we get to that, let’s look a bit closer at this latest bounce we’re seeing in the markets. The S&P was up on Monday by 2.59%, the Dow climbed 2.66%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.27%. On Tuesday the S&P 500 gained 3.06%, the Dow 2.80%, and the NASDAQ 3.34%. Bonds are down again and 10 Year Treasuries, which had risen to nearly 4% last week, were down to 3.5% Tuesday. How do we turn this bounce of a couple of days, into a longer-term Bear Market rally that could go as far as the end of the year? Well, we need two things. Number one: we need good news – that is bad news – for the jobs number coming out on Friday. In August, unemployment moved up to about a 3.7% rate from 3.5% in July and if that trend continues, I think Wall Street will fall back on its favorite theory that the Fed will stop raising rates and therefore Buy stocks and bonds! The second thing we need is good inflation numbers, or at the very least, a continuation of a downward trend of headline inflation, leading investors to believe the Fed has inflation under control and will therefore stop raising rates. I think that belief is wrong, but that logic may lead us into a bear market rally until 2023.
May 14, 2022 | ABBV, BMY, Daily JAM, MRK, PFE |
I can’t find Big Pharma stock in the green during Friday’s big rally. Which makes me question the staying power of Friday’s move. If the day’s gains were the result of a market bottom, wouldn’t everything be up? Even the very defensive drug stocks? Not as much as the tech losers of 2022 but still if the market had bottomed I’d expect these stocks to be in the green too. More evidence, I think, for my thesis that Friday was the result of technical trading in an over-sold market.
May 13, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term, You Might Have Missed |
It’s easier to explain why stocks, especially technology stocks, staged a huge rally today, Friday May 13, than to predict whether or not the BIG BOUNCE will continue on Monday. But here’s my take and my recommendation for what to do on Monday.
February 2, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 0.94% today, February 2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.63%. The NASDAQ Composite finished higher by 0.50%. Only the small cap Russell 2000 pointed down with a los of 1.03% on the day. Not that different from yesterday, February 1. On Tuesday the S&P 500 was up 0.69% and the Dow gained 0.78%. The NASDAQ Composite was ahead 0.75%. That day the Russell 2000 joined in the fun with a gain of 1.09% at the close. But if you looked at what stocks moved each day, the two sessions were extremely different.
February 1, 2022 | Daily JAM |
Oatly Group (OTLY) was up 6.92% on Monday. Tuesday the shares gained another 2.67%. It’s a good sign when a beaten down stock doesn’t fall on profit taking the next day. For a day, at least, traders behaved as if they see a longer market recovery in prospect. SolarEdge Technology (SEDG) gained 12.33% on Monday and tacked on 1.35% on Tuesday. Teledoc (TDOC) rose 8.96% on Monday and then climbed 3.15% on Tuesday.
February 1, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
Yesterday stocks reversed direction big time. After days of pounding lower the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 1.89% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.17% The NASDAQ Composite climbed 3.41% and the NASDAQ 100 tacked on 3.29%. Even the small cap Russell 2000 gained 3.05%. On those numbers I ‘d say the days action looks like a big oversold bounce off of a truly terrible January. But dig a little deeper and it looks like something else–or maybe additional somethings–was going on.
December 21, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Yesterday the Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 1.14% and market leading stocks such as Applied Materials (AMAT) dropped 0.78%. Big drug stocks made up the only sector in the green as Pfizer (PFE) rose 2.59%,and AbbVie (ABBV) gained 1.23%. The fears yesterday were that the Omicron Variant of the Covid-19 virus would slow the economy and that Senator Joe Manchin had just killed prospects for any stimulus from the Biden Administration’s Build Back Better bill. Today the S&P 500 closed up 1.78%. A market leader like Applied Materials rose 4.42%. A big drug stock such as Pfizer was down 3.39%.
December 2, 2021 | AAPL, AMAT, Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, SMNNY |
Want to know exactly how volatile the stock market is right now? Yesterday investors and traders got news that the first case of the Omicron Variant had been recorded in California. On that, and some “We’ll tighten sooner than expected” remarks from Fed officials, stocks plunged with the Dow Jones Industrial Average showing a 972 point swing from high at 11:25 and 34,994 to the close a 34,022. Today investors and traders got news of a second case–a Minnesota man who had attended an anime conference in New York. And the stock market didn’t just shrug; it rallied big time with the Standard & Poor’s 500 closing up 1.42%, the Dow Industrials u 1.85%, and the small cap Russell 2000 ahead 2.74%.
December 1, 2021 | AMAT, ASML, Daily JAM, Short Term |
After yesterday’s selling, we’re getting a bounce today. But, significantly, the bounce in stocks is much less “bouncy” than the Monday bounce from Friday’s plunge.
November 28, 2021 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
I think that in the coming week the market is likely to reconsider its panic selling of Friday. No guarantees, of course, but that is the most likely path for stocks in the coming week.
