China’s exports, trade surplus surge
China’s exports jumped in November by the most since early 2018. That growth pushed the country’s trade surplus to a monthly record. Exports rose 21.1% war over year in dollar terms in November, the largest increase since February 2018. Imports grew by only 4.5%. That resulted in a trade surplus of $75.4 billion for the month. That was the  largest on record in data going back to at least 1990. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast that exports would increase by 12% while imports would grow by 7%.
Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…
...China fireworks. We ended last week with the Commerce Department slapping new restrictions on the sale of any chip made with U.S. semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China's Huawei Technologies. (Which means that Taiwan Semiconductor Manuacturing's plans to...
China exports drop again in November
China's total exports dropped 1.1% year over year in November, the country's customs administration said on Sunday. Total exports to the United States fell 23% year over year. That was the worst result for exports to the United States since February and a 12th...
China exports drop more than expected in August
China’s exports fell 1% (in  dollars) in August, China's customs administration announced on Sunday. Economists and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted that exports would increase by 2.2% . Imports dropped by 5.6% roughly in line with forecasts of a 6.4%...
Rational self-interest argues for a successful conclusion of U.S.-China trade talks in the long run; in the short run it argues that the talks will fall apart first
It is clearly in the self interest of both President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping to reach an agreement that would bring the U.S.-China trade war to an end. In the long-run. That same calculus, however, argues that in the short run both leaders will let the...
Possibly meaningless Chinese economic data lead global markets down
Overnight numbers showed that China’s purchasing managers index for manufacturing fell  to 50.3 in February. That was down from 51.3 in January. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a reading of 51.1 in the index. The services PMI declined to 54.4 for the month from 55.3 in January. Easy to understand why these index figures would make markets nervous. 50.3 is way too close to the level that signals contraction in this index
Notes You Need for July 13: Bank of England rate increase, China trade, natural gas
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Notes You Need for June 8: NVDA, China exports, initial claims
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Notes You Need for April 13: China exports, initial claims for unemployment, North Korea birthday nuclear test, bets on French election, iron ore, Argentina upgrade, venture capital, XLNX
To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the...China’s export engine falters again
Thanks to the 6.5% drop in the yuan against the dollar in 2016 and the 6% decline in the yuan against a benchmark basket of currencies, China’s dollar denominated exports fell 6.1% in December.
Global trade isn’t waiting for President Trump–it’s slowing down NOW
In his campaign Donald Trump promised to kill the Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal and renegotiate NAFTA. Countries like China and Mexico faced the prospect of crippling tariffs on their goods. That left international economists deeply worried about a slowdown in global trade, a slowdown that might be sufficient to produce a global recession. Well, don’t worry. Even before Trump won the November 8 election globe trade had started to slow.
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