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Posts Tagged ‘consumer spending’

Don’t fight the Fed? Well, maybe

The advice "Don't fight the Fed" makes sense. If the Fed is flooding the financial markets with cash, then buy and follow along as the Fed makes money available to drive up asset prices. If the Fed is tightening, reducing the available supply of cash, then sell and move to the sidelines. It will be […]

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A near-term threat to the V-shaped recovery

Stock prices--3068.76 on for the Standard & Poor's 500 as of 1 p.m. New York time today--continue to climb toward the all-time closing record for the S&P 500 at 3386.15 set on February 19. That makes some sense if you believe that the Federal Reserve will continue to suppress interest rates--the yield on the 10-year […]

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Trick or Trend: Warning signs for the economy in Friday’s consumer spending report

Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Saturday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. In April U.S. consumer spending plunged by the most on record.  Household outlays fell 13.6% […]

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Good earnings news from JPMorgan Chase and bad holiday retail news balance out today

This morning JPMorgan Chase (JPM)  reported that fourth quarter earnings jumped 21% with annual earnings for 2019 rising to a record $36.4 billion. Chalk this one up to a rebound in trading revenue, especially fixed income trading where revenue came in $1 billion above analyst estimates. That good news today was balanced by negative news […]

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Trick or Trend: Will GDP forecasts from the New York and Atlanta fed be wrong again for the fourth quarter? Investors sure should hope so

Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Saturday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. The New York Federal Reserve Bank is forecasting that fourth quarter GDP will grow by […]

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On GDP growth there’s good news and bad news and more bad news

The U.S. economy grew at a 1.9% annualized rate in the third quarter, the Commerce Department reported this morning. The good news: The 1.9% growth in GDP was above the 1.6% rate forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The bad news: That 1.9% growth rate was down from the 2% annualized growth rate in the […]

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Stocks rally on September jobs report–the “why,” though, is complicated

This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added 136,000 jobs in September. And stocks rallied with the Standard & Poor's 500 closing the day up 1.10% to 2942.56 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending up 1.11%. The NASDAQ Composite finished up 1.11% and the Russell 2000 small cap index was […]

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August numbers say U.S. consumer is in decent shape; business investment still lags

Consumer spending on goods and services, which accounts for about two-thirds of gross domestic product, increased by just 0.1% in August from July, the smallest gain in six months, according to the Commerce Department today. Personal income was up 0.4% in August. Which makes the lag in consumer spending a little worrying since it suggests […]

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Goldilocks is alive and well, thanks to the U.S. consumer

The U.S. economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.1% in the second quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported this morning. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had projected that year over year growth in GDP would fall to 1.8%. So today's number is stronger than expected but still very much weaker than first […]

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Why stocks might pause this week

If there was ever a set up for a pause, this week is it. Last week, on June 20, the Standard & Poor's 500 hit an all time high. This week there's a lot of pending news to make investors nervous at this level of price in the market. It's time for caution--and maybe pulling […]

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