November 24, 2023 | Daily JAM |
The US-based venture capital funding deals fell 40.6% in January-October 2023 from that same period in 2022, according to GlobalData’s Financial Deals Database. In dollar terms venture deals fell by 43.56% year-over-year.The US accounted for 35% of the total number of venture capital funding announced globally during January-October 2023. Meanwhile, its share of the total disclosed funding value stood at 48.8%.
October 23, 2023 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
I know the bond market is getting most of the headlines at the moment. And it should be. By some measures, volatility in the Treasury market, you know, the old safe haven Treasury market, exceeds volatility in equities. And then there’s the drama of watching the assault on 5% yield on the 10-year Treasury. The drama isn’t just theatrics either. Above 5% yield on the 10-year Treasury there’s an increasing likelihood that something in this over-stretched credit market will break. But…you can’t ignore the stock market. The technical picture is increasly scary. Here too something looks like it could break–and not in a good way.
May 15, 2023 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Videos |
This week’s Trend of the Week is Credit Squeeze. SLOOS (Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey), a Fed survey, asks bank lending officers what they’re seeing in the credit market for commercial industrial loans. In the most recent survey, 46% of these officers report that their banks are making it harder to get loans. This is a textbook example of Hyman Minsky’s credit cycle. After a period of booming lending, the credit cycle returns to a period of tightening credit, often coinciding with eye-opening events like the Silicon Valley Bank failure, and a slowing down of the economy overall. The SLOOS report also showed a 56% drop in demand for commercial loans in the first quarter–an indicator that companies are aware that loans are harder to come by. Companies are having real trouble raising capital which is resulting in merger and/or acquisition deals for early-stage companies and employee layoffs as CEOs and CFOs attempt to hoard cash. The signs are that the Fed is taking notice of this contraction in the credit market and is starting to factor it into rate hike decisions. The Fed may decide it doesn’t need as many interest rate increases as it originally thought if the supply of credit is shrinking quiickly.
November 8, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
We’re at the point in the credit cycle when lenders and borrowers can get into trouble. The typical pattern is that lenders looking to keep loan balances climbing loosen up on lending standards and extend more credit to less qualified customers just as a slowing economy threatens the ability of these creditors to pay. See the subprime mortgage crisis that began in 2007 for the playbook. That particular crisis is still so fresh in lenders’ minds (I hope) that I think it’s unlikely that the mortgage market will be the locus of the next blow-up. It’s likely to show up somewhere else in the lending ecosystem. One place I’m watching right now is the credit-card market where lenders big and small look to be extending more credit to consumers with less-than-stellar credit ratings.
March 13, 2019 | Daily JAM, Stock Alerts, T |
To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the...
March 11, 2019 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
The level of fear among the managers of funds that buy investment-grade and high-yield debt has sunk to its lowest level since 2014, according to the Bank of America's March survey of fund managers. “The most notable change in our fresh survey of U.S. credit investors...
February 18, 2019 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
With U.S. stock markets closed today for Presidents' Day, credit market news has an opening to move higher on the Investor Worry Bandstand. (The kids give it an 65, as they used to say on American Bandstand. But I think its moving up fast. The American Bandstand...
February 6, 2019 | Daily JAM, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
The Federal Reserve and the world's other central banks face an impossible choice. On the one hand, they could have tighten the money supply by raising interest rates or other means. That would have risked sending economies near recession into recession--Germany, for...
November 29, 2018 | Daily JAM |
Released Thursday afternoon, the minutes from the November 7-8 Federal Reserve meeting confirmed the on-going debate at the U.S. central bank about how close benchmark interest rates are to neutral, the level that neither stimulates nor depresses economic activity. It...
July 31, 2018 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
This Special Report is under construction. Sorry the process is taking so long. I badly strained my left hand in a fall last week and it's made typing difficult. But all clear now and I 'm pushing ahead with this as fast as I can to complete the full ten picks. I've...
June 12, 2018 | Daily JAM, EQNR, Mid Term, Special Reports, TS, Volatility |
So let's say you find my argument that we're now in a Late Cycle Market with a credit crisis looming sometime in the next 2 to 3 years. You think you can see a classic Minsky Movement approaching as lenders and investors take on more risk--after all what can go...
June 7, 2018 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Volatility |
If you can't tell from the cascade of negative commentary, you certainly should be able to tell from trend in share prices: emerging markets have become the focus of current worries about global trade, the effects of a strong dollar, and the potential for a credit...