January 31, 2022 | Daily JAM, DAL, Jubak Picks |
When airline stocks come off a bottom, they come off fast and big. And I think that’s what we’re going to see over the next few quarters of 2022. Which means it’s time to buy. I could be early but the extreme volatility of stocks in the sector means that if you wait too long, you’ll miss the juiciest gains. Tomorrow, February 1, I’ll be adding shares of Delta Air Lines (DAL) to my JubakPicks Portfolio with a target price of $46. That’s just below the 200-day moving average and slightly further below the March 7, 2021 high of $49.83 highlighted in my last revision of the Dip-O-Meter this morning, January, 31.
January 28, 2022 | Daily JAM |
I’ve almost finished the Dip-O-Meter updates and revisions three times this week. But each time I get all the prices and indicators in, the market moves big. And I have to start all over again. I’m going to use the weekend quiet period–no trading on Saturday or Sunday–to finally wrap this up. I plan to post the update on Sunday in time for the 5 p.m. daily email alert to your mailbox.
December 14, 2021 | Daily JAM, Dip-O-Meter, Mid Term |
If not now, when?
When I checked the prices on the 25 stocks I’m tracking in my Dip-O-Meter at the close on December 10, a substantial group had dropped from the November 28 price. Nvidia (NVDA), for example had moved down to $301.98 from $315.03 on November 28. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) was down to $138.55 from $154.81. Tesla (TSLA) had retreated to $1017.03 from $1081.92 on November 28. Time to buy? Not yet, in my opinion. And how about for other stocks in my 25 buy on the dip candidates?
December 1, 2021 | AMAT, Daily JAM, DIS, Jubak Picks, MGM, Millennial, OTLY, Top 50 Stocks, Volatility |
After a huge rally like we’re had this year, it’s easy to fall into one of the most common buy on the dip traps. Just because a stock is cheaper than it was, it’s not necessarily a bargain. There’s nothing that says a stock has to return to its previous price after a dip. And especially that it has to return to that former price on your schedule. Let me use Disney (DIS), one of the stocks I’m tracking in my Dip-O-Meter, as an example.
November 28, 2021 | Daily JAM, Dip-O-Meter |
Oddly, the big sell off on Friday hasn’t created as many buys among the 25 stocks in the Dip-O-Meter as you might expect. Part of the reason is that the run up in stock prices in 2021 has been so fast that many stocks are still way above the 2021 lows. It’s hard to call Nvidia (NVDA), for example, a buy on the dip opportunity when the stock even Friday’s 3.58% drop to $315.03, is still way above the 200-day moving average at $190.81. Part of the reason is that, in my opinion, we’re looking at some negative trends in the economy, from the resurgence in Covid infections, and from inflation/interest rates/the Federal Reserve in the first half of 2022. Do you really feel in a rush to buy Disney at $148.11 after Friday’s 2.13% drop to $148.11 when it looks like park attendance is going to get slammed again by the Pandemic? Or MGM Resorts International (MGM)? Part of the reason is that existing negative trends haven’t bottomed out. Volkswagen (VWAPY) doesn’t look like a bargain at $18.50 after Friday’s selling because China’s auto market remains in turmoil, for example. Same with Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX) on slumping global copper demand. Which doesn’t mean I’ve got nothing to recommend for buying after Friday.
November 28, 2021 | Daily JAM, Dip-O-Meter |
After Friday’s panic selling, I’m working to update the Dip-O-Meter in a search for buy on the dip bargains. I expect to post that update later tonight in time for the market open tomorrow, Monday.
November 15, 2021 | Daily JAM, Dip-O-Meter, OTLY |
This is a very tough market for Buy on the Dip investors and traders. Not, as you might think, because a market that hits a new record high just about every day doesn’t offer very many opportunities to buy on the dip. Actually a market melt up, like the one we’re now experiencing, offers a lot of buy on the dip chances. That’s because while everyone wants to hold the market’s rockets, no one want to hold any stock demonstrating any weakness. Sell at the slightest whiff of bad news–as shares of Oatly (OTLY) demonstrated today, November 15, when they plunged 20.81% on disappointing earnings and guidance for the remainder of 2021 and into 2022. (Oatly is on this Dip-O-Meter list.) One problem is that plunges tend not to last very long.
April 12, 2021 | Daily JAM, Dip-O-Meter, Mid Term, PYPL, RUN, TDOC, Volatility |
Looking at the recent performance numbers on the 20 stocks I’m tracking in my Dip-O-Meter as of the close on Friday April 9, I have to conclude that for most of these stocks it’s time to take a pause on any “buy on the dip” opportunities. What I’m seeing in this sample is a general weakening of the upward bounce on rally days from these stocks–and without a strong bounce on a good day there’s not much reason to buy on the dip.
April 7, 2021 | Daily JAM, Dip-O-Meter, Short Term, You Might Have Missed |
This buy on the dip moment is over–this week’s revision of my Dip-O-Meter argues to me. The discounts to the February highs are, in general, getting smaller. And in many cases the size of the bounce that I’m seeing on up days is decreasing too.
March 28, 2021 | Daily JAM, Dip-O-Meter, Top 50 Stocks, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
I’ve scrubbed through the 20 stocks in the Dip-O-Meter, with updated numbers as of the close on Friday, March 26, looking for the best three buy on the dip trades. (Why only three? Because I think the same volatility that has created these profit opportunities makes it hard to be certain of a trend and I don’t want to bet the farm with the current degree of uncertainty. My choices for trades that I’ll put on tomorrow in my Volatility Portfolio are SunRun (RUN), Teladoc (TDOC), and PayPal (PYPL). These are all going into my Volatility Portfolio
March 23, 2021 | Daily JAM, Dip-O-Meter, IFNNY, NXPI |
Today I’m adding a second 10 stocks–to the 10 already listed–to the Dip-O-Meter. I’m tracking all 20 looking for buy on the dip opportunities. My take after today’s (March 23) action is not quite yet
March 22, 2021 | Daily JAM |
Here’s my second bunch of 10 stocks that I’ll be tracking as buy on the dip candidates in my Dip-O-Meter. I’ll be adding these names to the Dip-O-Meter itself and updating the first 10 names as soon as my tech people
