August 13, 2023 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Millennial, Morning Briefing, PANW, Top 50 Stocks |
The key sentiment barometer I’m watching is Palo Alto Networks (PANW), down 13% in the last month on fears that Microsoft (MSFT) is going to gobble up the revenue growth in the cybersecurity space. I think that fear is overblown, at least when it comes to Palo Alto Networks. The stock has long been a favorite of growth stock investors and, if sentiment on market direction for the rest of 2023 is positive I’d expect strong buying in the shares ahead of the Friday, August 18, earnings report. The Wall Street consensus calls for the company to report earnings of 54 cents a share against 15 cents a share in the fiscal quarter a year ago.
August 6, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Wall Street is starting to look past this quarter’s earnings recession and lick its chops at a return earnings growth in the third quarter. Earnings for the second quarter are turning out to be just as depressing as everyone anticipated. With 80% of the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 already reporting, earnings per share for the companies in the index are down more than 7% from the second quarter of 2022. this quarter will mark a third straight quarter of earnings declines. But, increasingly, Wall Street analysts are forecasting a return to earnings growth (if you exclude earnings from energy companies) in the third quarter.
May 4, 2023 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
When is a 4.5% year-over-year drop in earnings for the stocks in the Standard & Poor’s 500 good news? When the forecast for first-quarter earnings projected a 6.8% drop. Bloomberg now projects, with 74% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting first-quarter results, that earnings for the stocks in the index will be down 4.5% year over year this quarter.
April 12, 2023 | Daily JAM, Videos |
Today’s topic is Earnings Season Blues. We’re looking at an earnings recession. First-quarter earnings reports will start dropping Friday with the big banks reporting numbers. And the projection from Wall Street analysts is for a 6.8% year-over-year drop in earnings from the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500. This comes on the heels of a drop of 4.6% year over year for the fourth quarter. That would mark two negative quarters in a row. The second quarter 2023 projection is another year-over-year decline of 4.6%. These drops reflect higher inflation, higher costs, and slowing demand. Interestingly, the stock market has stayed within a range since December 2022–with stock prices not really reacting to negative earnings news. The market is showing investors and traders still hope the Fed will bail out the market by cutting rates in 2023 or 2024. This hope balances out the negative news coming from earnings reports and projections. That balance could start to falter if we continue to get negative earnings (which we will), and the Fed disappoints by continuing to raise interest rates. The most recent inflation numbers show that inflation is coming down (slowly) overall, but core inflation was actually up slightly, leaving the Fed’s decision on when to stop the hikes up in the air.
December 2, 2019 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Sorry. A draft version of this was published prematurely yesterday. Here is the actual final version. Wall Street analysts always cut their earnings estimates as a quarter progresses. (Which then lets lots of companies beat forecasts when they actually report.) But...
April 19, 2019 | Daily JAM, Friday Trick or Trend |
Wall Street earnings estimates for the first quarter continue to retreat. According to FactSet, first quarter earnings per share in the Standard & Poor’s 500 are now expected to fall 4.3% year-over-year. That’s a further deterioration from the 4.1% drop in earnings Wall Street expected act the end of March. And it’s down from projections for 2% earnings growth three months ago.
April 15, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Today's earnings and (especially) revenue reports for the first quarter of 2019 from Citigroup (C) and Goldman Sachs (GS) say that Friday's good news from JPMorgan Chase (JPM) shouldn't be extrapolated to the entire banking sector. This morning before the New York...
April 14, 2019 | Daily JAM |
... earnings report this coming week to shed significant light on the likelihood of an earnings recession and how the slowdown in the global economy will affect revenue and earnings at U.S. companies. This week begins by finishing up reporting from the big banks. We...
March 26, 2019 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Special Reports |
That famous futures trader Marc Antony famously said "Beware the Ides of April." Okay, the guy had a mixed performance record. Short Brutus but long Cleopatra. But his advice about April 2019 is good. The Ides of April fall on the 13th of the month. And what promises...
March 7, 2019 | Daily JAM, Stock Alerts, VLO |
Valero Energy is the largest independent largest independent refiner in the United States. And it's also one of the best refiners in the world, period. But this just isn't a good time to be a refiner and the oil market has moved in ways that negate many of the...
March 5, 2019 | Daily JAM, LNG, Stock Alerts |
At the moment everything is running Cheniere Energy's (LNG) way. Â And while natural gas remains a cyclical sector and subject to the ebbs and flows of the global economy, those catalysts are enough for me to make this the #8 pick for my Special Report: 10 stocks for...
February 20, 2019 | Daily JAM, Special Reports |
The U.S. stock market is worried about an economy recession--two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth--and an earnings recession--two consecutive quarters of negative growth for the stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500. Neither is certain. But of the two an...
