Jobs preview from ADP predicts bad news in Friday’s official jobs report for February

Jobs preview from ADP predicts bad news in Friday’s official jobs report for February

Private employers added 117,000 jobs in February, according to today’s National Employment Report from ADP. The ADP report leads into Friday’s Labor Department report on the job market. The Labor Department report will include jobs gains or losses in the public sector that has been hit hard by the pandemic. Economists had projected that the ADP survey would show private payrolls adding 165,000 jobs in February.

So how is the economy (remember the economy?) anyway?

So how is the economy (remember the economy?) anyway?

As you’ll remember when last we left the U.S. economy–on Friday morning–it had just reported a disappointing addition of 103,000 net new jobs for March. Economists had been looking for 183,000. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%, where it’s been stuck for six straight months. (Economists were expecting unemployment to drop to 4.0%.) Average hourly earnings, in a piece of good news, climbed 0.3% from January and 2.7% year over year.

What we learned in this rout: This is what a late stage market looks like

What we learned in this rout: This is what a late stage market looks like

Before this market rout and from the safety of the World Economic Forum in Davos, hedge fund legend Ray Dalio talked about the coming bear market in bonds and likelihood that we were near the end of this cycle of economic boom. Sometime in the next two years, he remarked, we were likely to experience a recession and that would put an end to one of the longest periods of economic growth in the United States. With the experience of the big market rout of January 26 through February 8 behind us–if it indeed is–when the Standard & Poor 500 stock index fell 9.03%, I’d like to make Dalio’s comments a little more explicit and apply them more directly to the stock market.

Why Wal-Mart’s recent pay increase is good news for the economy–especially if it’s not a result of the tax bill

Why Wal-Mart’s recent pay increase is good news for the economy–especially if it’s not a result of the tax bill

Ever since the January 11 announcement from Wal-Mart (WMT) that it would increase the starting wage rate for hourly workers to $11 (and provide a one-time cash bonus of up to $1,000 plus expanded maternity and parental leave b benefits,) pundits have seized on the news to say either “See, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Bill is already working,” or “This is all about competition for workers in a tight jobs market and has nothing to do with recent tax cuts.”

Revised GDP and initial claims numbers pass the crucial test–they’re no worse than expected

Not terrible and no worse than expected. How’s that for a ringing endorsement of the U.S. economy? The latest revision of figures on the growth rate of the U.S. economy in the second quarter, released this morning, show the economy growing at a 1.7% annual rate. That’s up just slightly from the previous revision that showed a 1.6% annual growth.

Up but still stuck in a trading range

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