February 6, 2023 | Daily JAM, Perfect Five-ETFs, Videos, Volatility |
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-thirty-third YouTube video: Trend of the Week China Accelerates This week’s Trend of the Week: China Accelerates. There is a horrific death toll in China as the country’s COVID policy changed dramatically, allowing COVID cases to surge wildly, spreading throughout the country and killing possibly a million people, but ultimately resulting (everyone hopes) in immunity. Now, Bloomberg is seeing a pick-up in China’s manufacturing activity and predicts 5.8% GDP growth in 2023, a huge bump from 3% in 2022. You can see this upswing by looking at the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (Nasdaq: FXI) as the market anticipates this GDP growth and a likely stimulus from the People’s Bank of China to make up for problems relating to the COVID crash. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), which is an ETF that tracks at emerging markets as a whole and is heavily influenced by China, is also back on the upswing. I had been shorting EEM as China’s economy was dragging markets down, but I’ll be ending that short now. The bad thing about China being back is that it will start exporting inflation to the global economy, likely to the tune of about 100 basis points. Whether or not this will change the Fed’s timeline for pausing interest rates is unclear at this point. We can expect higher commodity prices, energy prices, and eventually, consumer prices as China continues its upswing. To follow more ETFs, go to my paysite, JubakAM.com.
July 11, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
China’s stocks took a beating today, July 11, on worries that the country is headed for a replay of the Pandemic lockdowns that battered the country’s economy earlier this year. In Shanghai, the flash point in the lockdown that ended just 5 weeks ago, the Covid case-load continued to march high. The city reported 59 new infections on Monday, the fourth day in a row with case numbers above 50. The sharp rise from single digits about a week ago follows the detection of the more contagious BA.5 sub-strain of the omicron variant. Nationally, close to 30 million people, are under some form of movement restriction. In Macao, state regulators moved to close all casinos for the first time since the early stages of the pandemic.
March 13, 2022 | Daily JAM, EUM, Short Term, Volatility |
I think the trend has finally turned against emerging market stocks. All it took was the threat of a debt default by Russia. That shift is too late for the Brazil and Mexico Put Options I bought on January 24, which expire on Mach 18. But with a Russian debt default looming I’m replacing those Puts with an ETF that shorts the major emerging markets index.
March 10, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos, Volatility |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and eleventh YouTube video “Russia’s looming default” went up today.
September 14, 2021 | ALB, CMI, CRWD, Daily JAM, DE, PANW, Short Term |
I found myself humming “I scare myself” this morning as the market continued its September selling. The Dan Hicks and the Hot Licks song pretty much sums up the market action this morning. We all know that stocks go down in September so we’re sending stocks downward. And we all know that September 17 is the Big Bad Day in the month so it’s unreasonable to expect a turn in sentiment before that date. But so far, I’d note, the selling seems “orderly” with the usual candidates bucking the trend and showing up in the green. It’s when those still in the green stocks start tumbling that I’ll really start to worry.
July 7, 2021 | Daily JAM, Videos |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The thirty-second YouTube video “OPEC and the threat to green energy stocks” went up today.
May 19, 2021 | Daily JAM, Videos |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The twenty-fourth YouTube video “Three Hedges for a Falling Market” went up today.
March 23, 2021 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
This weeks long list of Treasury auctions started off today with a very good sale of $60 billion in two-year notes today. Today’s sale came with a yield of 0.152%–yep that’s where interest rates are right now–on the two year note. That matched the bid in the when-traded market. Total bids amounted to 2.54 times the amount of debt offered. It’s a good sign when bids exceed the amount on sale. In February the bid-to-cover ration was 2.44 times. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury fell 7 basis points today to 1.62%.
February 23, 2021 | Daily JAM |
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell didn’t take all worry off Wall Street’s plate, but he did downsize the portion.
March 27, 2020 | Daily JAM |
We won't know until March 31 when he purchasing managers' indexes for China are released but it looks like China will see its first quarterly contraction of its economy in decades and the weakest year since 1976. The problem is that just as Chinese factories are going...
June 2, 2019 | Daily JAM, EEM, Perfect Five-ETFs, Stock Alerts |
In an ideal world, I would have finished my Special Report on the Crisis in Global Capitalism On my subscription JubakAM.com site by now so I could place this sell--and the coming buy of a Treasury ETF--in the context of that crisis. But this isn't an ideal world....
August 31, 2018 | Daily JAM |
The bad news is that the emerging market crisis that has sent financial markets plummeting in Argentina, Turkey, and Brazil has added India and Indonesia to its list of victims. The good news is that the inclusion of India and Indonesia is exactly what analysts and...
