What today’s oil and energy recovery tells us about what the market is thinking about the timing of an oil bottom

Bad news from the weekly report on U.S. crude oil inventories today from the Energy Information Administration. But surprisingly oil and energy stocks rallied in the middle of the day with West Texas Intermediate bouncing back to $51.66 a barrel, down 2.4%, and energy stocks cutting their loss to 0.7% after being lower by 2% this morning.

No sign yet that anybody is pumping less oil due to lower prices

So far, oil producers in U.S. shale geologies are following the script: In the face of falling oil prices, they’re cutting back on drilling but increasing production. According to Baker Hughes (BHI), the U.S land-based rig count fell by 31 rigs to 1,578 in the week ended on October 10. But companies from Devon Energy to Continental Resources are forecasting 25% or higher increases in production for 2015

Five picks for energy–the once and future sector

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