Russia sanctions push copper higher today, October 5
Copper gained after the London Metal Exchange said it will restrict new deliveries of the metals from Russia’s Ural Mining & Metallurgical Co. and one of its subsidiaries.
Please watch my new YouTube video: Trend of the Week–A new commodity super cycle
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My eighty-ninth YouTube video “Trend of the Week: A new commodity super cycle” went up today.
Copper is back on a roll–adding shares of First Quantum Minerals to Millennial Portfolio tomorrow
Copper prices rose 3.54% on the London Metals Exchange today to $10,064 a metric ton. And that looks like just the beginning of a classic commodity run based on supply shortages in the copper industry and increases in demand from growth in electric cars and renewable energy technologies. Inventories at the London Metals Exchange now sit at multi-year lows. Goldman Sachs recently increased its forecast for copper to $12,000 a metric ton and sees a 20% upside for copper in 2022. Bank of America recently put a $20,000 price target on copper by 2025. Today, January 12, copper stocks were on the march.
After Friday’s panic selling: My update to the 25 buy on the dip stocks in the Dip-O-Meter
Oddly, the big sell off on Friday hasn’t created as many buys among the 25 stocks in the Dip-O-Meter as you might expect. Part of the reason is that the run up in stock prices in 2021 has been so fast that many stocks are still way above the 2021 lows. It’s hard to call Nvidia (NVDA), for example, a buy on the dip opportunity when the stock even Friday’s 3.58% drop to $315.03, is still way above the 200-day moving average at $190.81. Part of the reason is that, in my opinion, we’re looking at some negative trends in the economy, from the resurgence in Covid infections, and from inflation/interest rates/the Federal Reserve in the first half of 2022. Do you really feel in a rush to buy Disney at $148.11 after Friday’s 2.13% drop to $148.11 when it looks like park attendance is going to get slammed again by the Pandemic? Or MGM Resorts International (MGM)? Part of the reason is that existing negative trends haven’t bottomed out. Volkswagen (VWAPY) doesn’t look like a bargain at $18.50 after Friday’s selling because China’s auto market remains in turmoil, for example. Same with Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX) on slumping global copper demand. Which doesn’t mean I’ve got nothing to recommend for buying after Friday.
Special Report: Buy on the Dip Strategy #3 (of 4) and four more picks (Nos. 8, 9, 10 and 11)
When I started Special Report for how to Buy on the Dip, What to Buy on the Dip and When to Buy on the Dip I was only looking to have three strategies (and 10 picks). The more I look at the current market, the more complex it seems with more moving parts that could generate an Oh, No! moment for this stock or that stock. Which is why I’ve added a fourth strategy, one I’m calling “The China bomb” and four more picks to my Buy on the Dip Special Report.
Special Report: 4 Strategies and 14 Best Buy on the Dip Stocks–Complete 4 strategies and 14 picks
Yes, we want to buy on the dip. Whenever we get a significant dip. (And significant to me is 5% or more in the major indexes–and 10% or more in specific sectors.) But, we need new strategies for buying on the dip that take into account the market’s valuation problem, the central bank tightening that looks to be in the cards, and the real possibility of a dip in growth below forecasts in 2022. I’ve got fouir strategies to suggest for buying in this market on these dips. And 14 picks to use to execute those strategies.
Special Report: 5 Picks and 5 Hedges for a Falling Market–another (new as of August 17) installment on hedging
After Wednesday’s news from the Federal Reserve, we all know that an interest rate increase is coming–even if we don’t know when. Could be 2022. Could be 2023. And even if we don’t know how many increases we’re looking for in that time period. Could be one. Could be two. The need to revise your portfolio to take that change in monetary policy is obvious. But figuring out how and when isn’t by any means straightforward. What gives? And how should be navigate a period that is almost certainly going to end with a reversal of the lower for longer interest rates that have dominated asset prices for decades? Today, for the last installment in my Special Report: “5 Picks and 5 Hedges for a Falling Market” I’m going to take one last run at how to hedge this market and how to position your portfolio for the developing trends. (I don’t have much hope that this will be the last time I’m visiting this topic, of course.)
Today the market looks a lot like “before the Fed Wednesday”
Remember way back at the beginning of last week? That is before the Federal Reserve signaled on Wednesday that more of the members of its Open Market Committee were thinking about raising interest rates sooner than previously expected. Re-opening stocks, value stocks, and cyclical stocks led the market. The small cap Russell 2000 was the best performing of the major indexes. Well, they’re back
Selling Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold out of Jubak Picks on valuation
Copper has rallied–again–to a new 10-year high and that has taken Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold to $39.53 today, April 28, as of 3:50 p.m.. That’s above my target price in my Jubak Picks Portfolio of $34. So today I’m selling this position. The stock is up 39.34% as of 3:50 p.m. New York time since I added it to the portfolio on January 6, 2021. I still have substantial exposure to copper through my positions in Southern Copper (SCCO) in my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio and in my Dividend Portfolio.
Trick or Trend: Is this a super cycle for copper?
In commodities world there are bounces. There are rallies. And then there are super cycles of higher prices that can go on for years on an imbalance between supply and demand. We’re had our bounce in copper. And our rally. Now are we seeing the emergence of a copper super cycle? I think the answer is yes.
Special Reports: Profit and Protect–What you need to know about stock market stages for 2021–my first two hedges (copper and banks) for Stage #2
Hedges that can pay off on the downside and the upside are the most useful and most valuable. They also tend to be relatively rare. There aren’t a lot of these bets floating around in most markets just waiting for you to snap them up. However, I have found two hedges of just this sort in today’s market that I’m going to recommend to you today. (In this post I’m going to give you some of the nitty gritty numbers that support my recommendation for these two hedges. If you want to see some charts for copper and gold, banks and bonds check out the video I posted today.) I’m going to add these new recommendations to my standing Special Reports post tomorrow.
A wild day for stock gains–although you wouldn’t know it from the indexes
At the close today the Standard & Poor’s 500 was down 0.19%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended dead even. The NASDAQ Composite “soared” 0.07%. It wasn’t until you looked at the Russell 2000 small cap index that you saw any signs of what a wild day it was. That index, so economically sensitive these days, finished ahead 2.04%. Don’t look to the usual suspects if you’re seeking big winners today.
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