September 18, 2021 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
I expect that the the financial markets will remember this week that the Federal Reserve will actually say something after its meeting on Wednesday, September 22. Even if the Fed doesn’t change policy at all, the central bank will deliver a new set of economic projections with views on inflation and GDP growth that could add volatility to an already nervous markThe CME Fed Watch Tool, which looks at prices in the Fed Funds Futures market to calculate market expectations for an interest rate move by the Federal Reserve, says there’s a 0% chance of a change in interest rates at Wednesday’s meeting. The odds for a Fed interest rate increase go up to only 1.8% at the November 3 meeting according to the CME Fed Watch. And are only 1.7% for the December 15 meeting. In other words the market is utterly convinced that the Fed will do nothing.
January 8, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The U.S. economy shed 140,000 jobs in December. That’s the first monthly job loss in eight months. Economists had expected the economy to pick up a very modest 50,000 jobs in the month. The official unemployment rate held at 6.7%.
December 16, 2020 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Today’s (Wednesday, December 16) meeting of the Federal Reserve, the last of the year for the central bank, ended with the promise to maintain the current massive monthly bond purchases of at least $120 billion until the Fed sees “substantial further progress” in employment and inflation. This replaces the earlier promise to keep buying “over coming months.” In other words the Fed’s bond buying policy now fits into the Fed’s interest rate framework of extraordinarily low for an extraordinary long time.
September 27, 2020 | Daily JAM |
... junk bond sales and prices to be a key indicator of cash flows in the market--and of worries about a new surge in coronavirus cases this fall. Until this past week companies continued to raise huge sums--$18 billion in the week ended on September 18--in the market...
June 10, 2020 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
Could this be the first signs that the financial markets are questioning Goldilocks? Investors and traders heard almost everything they could have hoped to hear from the Federal Reserve's interest-rate setting Open Market Committee meeting today. Sure, the Fed didn't...
