July 13, 2023 | Daily JAM, Videos |
Today’s video is Remember the Quiet Period. Don’t panic. There have been a lot of announcements coming from the Fed recently but it’s not because there’s a new crisis or a huge event brewing. It’s simply that the window of time when the Fed can speak is about to close. The Fed has to go quiet twelve days before the July meeting, so right now, they’re trying to make it very clear to the market that a 25 basis point raise is likely in July. On Monday, three Fed officials, Michael Barr, Mary Daly and Loretta Mester discussed the need for another rate hike–possibly two. We’ll be entering the Fed’s quiet period on Saturday, July 15. Looking at the CME FedWatch, on July 11, the market believed there was a 92.4% chance we’ll get a rate hike on July 26. On the same date, the market thought the odds were only at 22.2% for a 25 basis point increase at the meeting on September 20. It sounds like the Fed has made their intentions clear for the July 26 meeting, and the market won’t be shocked by a rate hike on that date. September 20? Hmmm.
May 29, 2022 | Daily JAM, Weekend JAM |
I’m looking for a test of the new “Fed Call” theory.
A few weeks ago, before last week’s rally anyway, the theory starting going around that the “Fed Put” (sometimes called the “Powell Put”) was dead. The Fed Put (in place since the days when it was called the “Greenspan Put”) held that investors and traders didn’t have to worry about the dangers of a big downside move in the stock market because the Federal Reserve would ride to the rescue, flooding the financial markets with cheap money, and rescuing stocks. The new thinking, however, was that with the Fed looking to contain potentially run-away inflation, the Fed would be happy to see stocks take a substantial but not dangerous tumble because that would act to damp sentiment and restrain spending. A decline in stock prices was, for this point of view, an ally of the Fed’s policy of increasing interest rates. The question is, of course, how active the Fed would be in “encouraging” a decline in stock prices
June 8, 2019 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
...deafening quiet from the Federal Reserve. With the Federal Reserve scheduled to meet on June 18 and June 19, the Fed has entered its traditional pre-meeting quiet period as of today, June 8. The Fed's schedule shows not a single speech or event scheduled until...
February 17, 2018 | Uncategorized |
There’s an especially heavy schedule of speeches from the Federal Reserve this week–with U.S. stock markets hanging on every word. With the next Fed meeting scheduled for March 21–and with everyone expecting an interest rate increase from the U.S. central bank–this week is one of the Fed’s last big chances to direct expectations before the Fed’s March 21 meeting. The Fed’s quiet period begins the second Saturday before a meeting of the Fed’s Open Market Committee so the “no public comments” period for this meeting begins on March 10.
