January 27, 2024 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
It’s a Federal Reserve meeting week, but I expect Apple’s (AAPL) earnings report for its December quarter to be the big event of the week. With the potential to move the tech sector and the market.
September 20, 2023 | Daily JAM, Volatility |
The CBOE Volatility Index, which measures short-term volatility in the Standard & Poor’s 500 stocks, has been stuck below its long-term average of near 17 since the regional bank crisis of March 2023. In recent months, the VIX has had a hard time breaking above 17 with the index spending most of its time down about 15. Today, at 1 p.m. New York time, the VIX was at just 14.01, down 0.71% ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. There’s just no fear in this market. So it will extremely interesting to see if today’s interest rate decision and the release of new Dot Plot forecasts for interest rates, inflation, economic growth, and unemployment today from the Fed has any effect of market complacency.
September 16, 2023 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
Watch what the Federal Reserve says on Wednesday not what it does at the interest-rate setting meeting of the Open Market Committee. Everybody, I mean everybody, expects that the Fed will hold its benchmark interest rate steady at the current range of 5.25% to 5.50%. The odds, calculated from prices in the Fed Funds Futures market by the CME FedWatch Tool, stand at 98% that the central bank will do nothing. But this meeting also includes an update of the Fed’s Dot Plot forecast for future interest rates, inflation, unemployment and GDP growth. And those numbers will give investors the best available clue on what the Fed will do at its November meeting and int 2024.
July 24, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Ho, hum, it’s a quiet week with nothing much going on. Oh, except for the meeting the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate setting Open Market Committee on Wednesday, July 26. Oh, and earnings from Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG) on July 25, and Meta Platform (META aka Facebook) on July 26. Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN report on August 3.
December 7, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Stocks are struggling again today with the Standard & Poor’s 500 near the breakeven mark for most of the session. As of 1:15 p.m. New York time today, the S&P 500 was up 0.09%. It closed down 0.19%. What’s weighing on stocks?
March 16, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
On Wednesday the Federal Reserve will update its projections for GDP growth, inflation, and the timing of any interest rate increase. In December, Fed officials, on the famous (or infamous) dot plot indicated that that central bank officials expected to hold benchmark interest rates in the current 0% to 0.25% range through the end of 2023. in the months since that projection from the Fed the market has been pricing in a different scenario, one that sees a tightening in interest rates from the Fed at the end of 2022. In other words roughly a year earlier than the Fed’s projected schedule last December.
November 16, 2019 | Daily JAM |
...a pause in the news flow. The week ahead won't be completely quiet, of course. There's the little matter of the Part 1 agreement to settle some of the issues in the U.S.-China  trade war.  If this last week is any indication, we'll have lots of "announcements" from...