October 20, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The yield on the 10-year Treasury closed at 4.99% yesterday. Bond prices are up a bit today, Friday October 20, and as of 1 p.m. New York time, the yield on the 10-year had retreated 8 basis points to 4.91% I don’t think this changes the trend line–which is clearly pointing toward yields above 5%. I’m watching that level carefully for two reasons.
September 29, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Yesterday, September 28, for a day, global stocks and bonds rallied after the Bank of England stepped in and said it was setting aside £65bn ($72 billion) to buy bonds over the next 13 working days. (It’s a limited-time offer that expires on October 14.) Today, the global selling has resumed. As of the close in New York time, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was down 2.11% on the day. The rally yesterday was, in my opinion, a knee-jerk reaction by investors and traders who saw the Bank of England’s move as evidence that the central bank Put lived. And that central banks would, of course, rescue the financial markets. According to this interpretation, the market was upset, and, as usual, central bankers soothed it with a bundle of cash. Which led markets to hope that other central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, would pivot away from a policy of higher interest rates in the face of the damage done to financial markets. Today’s resumption of selling is, I think, a recognition that yesterday’s rally was based on false assumptions.
September 28, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-eighty-ninth YouTube video: “From a Bear Market to a Global Financial Crisis” went up today. To me, it increasingly looks like we’re going from a bear market to a global financial crisis. The signs of an upcoming global financial crisis are there: volatility in the currency markets, the decline in nearly every currency against the dollar, the World Bank lowering its estimates of economic growth around the world, and global inflation due to food and energy. A good way to track the “progress” toward a global financial crisis0 is to look at emerging markets. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) and iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA) both saw accelerated declines starting around September 12, and South Korea has been down since mid-August. Many key emerging markets rely on in-flows of foreign capital to balance their accounts but the flow of that money has slowed, as investors are risking less internationally and keeping their funds closer to home. Right now, we’re seeing a global “Whac-a-Mole”, where individual countries pop up as problems. But if more financial individual crises pop up simultaneously and at a more rapid pace, we’ll have a global financial crisis on our hands. Oh, goody. Something more to worry about.
September 8, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-seventy-third YouTube video: “Trend of the Week Watch for a Global Liquidity Shock” went up today For today’s Trend of the Week, I’m looking at not just whether the market goes up or down, but HOW the market goes up and down. Norway’s Equinor worry last week about a $1.5 trillion liquidity shortage in the trading market for European energy last weekend went so far as to call it a “Lehman Brothers moment.” You remember Lehman Brothers, right? And the global financial crisis? The shock of the statement resonates in Europe and beyond.
April 14, 2022 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
My one-hundredth-and-twenty-first YouTube video “Another Global Financial Crisis?” went up today. In this week’s video, I’m looking at Sri Lanka’s announcement that it will default on its foreign debt as the canary in the coal mine for a new global financial crisis. A number of negative trends are lining up against emerging markets: the economic fallout of reduced tourism from the pandemic, rising costs for food and fuel, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We’ve seen political turmoil in developing markets surge recently, and I think this is an important area to watch with potential implications for a larger financial crisis. The ProShares Short MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EUM), which inversely tracks emerging markets, is both a way to keep your eye on these developments as well as a possible hedge against the fallout.
February 1, 2019 | Daily JAM |
Once upon a time--as late as 2018--the consensus thinking in financial markets was that the Federal Reserve was but the first central bank to raise interest rates. Other central banks, most notably the European Central Bank, (but not the Bank of Japan, which may never...
January 17, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term, Volatility |
Did you see what happened in Hong Kong overnight? The major Hong Kong Index, the Hang Seng was down slightly, dropping 0.54% on the session. But a smaller group of stocks in the Hong Kong market got slaughtered. Jiayuan International Group, Sunshine 100 China Holdings...
November 6, 2013 | Daily JAM |
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July 22, 2013 | Uncategorized |
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June 17, 2013 | Daily JAM, Long Term |
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May 6, 2013 | Daily JAM, Long Term |
To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the...
April 18, 2013 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the...