November 3, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The U.S. economy added “only” 150,000 jobs in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced this morning, November 3. Economists had projected that the economy would add 180,000 jobs for the month. The unemployment rate climbed slightly to 3.9% from 3.8%, And the government statisticians revised September’s shocking 336,000 job increase the month down to 297,000 and revisions to the August and September totals took 101,000 jobs out of the totals for those to months. The Wall Street conclusion: The Fed has done its job and the economy has slowed.
March 21, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The CME FedWatch Tool, which calculates the odds of a Fed move on interest rates by looking at prices in the Fed Funds Futures market, puts the odds of a 25 basis point interest rate increase from the U.S. central bank tomorrow at 86.4%. That’s up from 73.8% on March 20.
November 30, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-eleventh YouTube video: The Fed Is Now On Message–Ask Why Today’s topic: The Fed is Now On Message, Ask Why. Last week I spoke about how confusing the Fed’s messaging had been recently, but this week, everybody has been on the same page. St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard, a fairly aggressive inflation fighter, suggested we need to take the Fed rate up to 5-7%, a hike from the current 3.75-4%. Loretta Mester, President of the Fed in Cleveland, agreed that the Fed isn’t near a pivot and John Williams, President of the New York Fed, came out with a detailed statement saying that more work is needed on inflation and unemployment may need to rise to 4.5-5% by the end of 2023. While Williams didn’t use the word, “recession,” it’s clear that you don’t reach those unemployment numbers without hitting a recession. So, why are these formerly out-of-sync Fed presidents suddenly aligned on message? The Fed is data-driven, and Fed members got new inflation and jobs numbers recently before the public release Thursday and Friday. Could be that these new data points have driven the Fed to the conclusion that we shouldn’t expect a pivot any time soon. Or maybe it’s just that the Fed goes into its quiet period soon before the December 14 meeting.
June 11, 2017 | Daily JAM, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
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June 4, 2017 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
On Friday, the government released the May jobs report: The U.S. economy added just 138,000 jobs, far less than the 180,000 expected by economists
October 4, 2016 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
The financial markets are gradually convincing themselves that the Federal Reserve is certain to raise interest rates at its December 14 meeting. That, along with the continued retreat in the pound on remarks from U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May signaling a hard Brexit, sent the U.S. dollar to its biggest gain in two weeks. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed by 0.6% this morning.
March 25, 2016 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
This morning the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a revised increase of 1.4% for fourth quarter GDP. The previous estimate had been 1%. Of course, the Fed knew this was coming
September 17, 2014 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Once again financial markets went into today’s meeting of the Fed’s Open Market Committee trying to predict what the Fed would say about when it will start to raise interest rates. And trying to figure out what the effect of the eventual increase in rates will be on the financial markets.
