Inflation, especially services inflation, looks sticky: PCE inflation up a fast 0.4% month to month in January

Inflation, especially services inflation, looks sticky: PCE inflation up a fast 0.4% month to month in January

The headline, all-items Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, climbed at a 2.4% year over year rate in January. That was in line with what economists had forecast and down from the 2.6% annual rate in December. The core PCE, that is after stripping out more volatile food and fuel prices, climbed at a 2.8% year over year rate. In December the annual rate of core inflation had been 2.9%. But that was the end of the good news in today’s PCE inflation report.

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Inflation Stickier for Longer

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Inflation Stickier for Longer

Today’s video is Inflation: Stickier for Longer. The market is now beginning to suspect that the Fed has a last mile problem. The CPI numbers from Tuesday weren’t terrible, but they weren’t as low as the market hoped. Headline inflation was at 3.1% annual rate and core inflation was 3.9%–markedly better than the past high of 9%, but not quite hitting the 2.9% for headline inflation that economists were looking for. The miss has finished a flip in sentiment about a March rate cut. The CME FedWatch poll in January had March rate cut odds at 90% likely, now, just a month later, the odds of no action are up to nearly 90%. Only about a third of investors believe there will be a rate cut in May with odds of no action up to 61%. The calendar is being pushed out to June or July for cuts from the Fed. This has resulted in bond yields going back up, around 4.3% on the ten year Treasury, and stocks going down a bit. There is a hope out there that the CPI numbers were a January blip, but if you look at the breakdown of the inflation numbers, it seems clear that inflation is just plain sticky. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank index that looks at the sectors that tend to be sticky and how much they’re influencing the overall inflation rate shows that prices in those sticky inflation categories have stopped and that they are a major factor keeping inflation higher than hoped. . Additionally, while there’s been a big drop in goods prices, the price of services has not gone down nearly as much. The super core inflicts number, which looks a prices in the services sector after taking out the cost of shelter has stalled. All this to say, we’ve got good evidence that this last mile from 3% to 2% on inflation could take a while.

Good but disappointing news on CPI inflation for January

Good but disappointing news on CPI inflation for January

Headline, all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation fell again in January, but not by as much as economists had projected before this morning’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In January prices rose at 3.1% year-over-year. That’s a slower increase than the 3.4% annual rate notched in December. But economist had projected that inflation would dip to a 2.9% annual rate. And stocks dropped on the disappointment.

Inflation, especially services inflation, looks sticky: PCE inflation up a fast 0.4% month to month in January

Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week ahead expect…

I expect another downward move for inflation when the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) is reported on Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect that the core consumer price index, which excludes move volatile food and fuel prices, will show a year over year rate of increase of 3.7% in January. That would be the slowest year-over-year increase since April 2021.

New York Community won’t be the last bank to get into trouble; adding Puts on next bank crisis

Nothing like a bank surprise to get Wall Street in a lather. On Wednesday, January 31,  New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) announced that it would cut its dividend and add to reserves against losses in its commercial lending portfolio. The stock fell 38% on Wednesday to hit a 23-year low on Thursday. The bad news wasn’t limited to U.S. banks either.Tokyo-based Aozora plunged more than 20% after warning of US commercial-property losses Frankfurt’s Deutsche Bank more than quadrupled its provisions against U.S real estate losses. I don’t see any reason to think that this is a one-day phenomenon. Or that the damage is just a minor problem in a few portfolios. Billionaire investor Barry Sternlicht warned this week that the office market is headed for more than $1 trillion in losses. “This is a huge issue that the market has to reckon with,” Harold Bordwin, a principal at Keen-Summit Capital Partners in New York, which specializes in renegotiating distressed properties, told Bloomberg. “Banks’ balance sheets aren’t accounting for the fact that there’s lots of real estate on there that’s not going to pay off at maturity.” On Monday then, I’m adding Put Options on the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE).

Big deal inflation report on Thursday looking kinda “iffy”

Federal Reserve disappoints, comes close to taking a March cut in interest rates off the table

The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday in a range of 5.25%-5.50%–as the financial markets expected. But the central bank pushed back more strongly than financial markets hoped on a March 20 schedule for the first cut in rates. “The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%,” the Fed said in its policy statement.Fed chair Jerome Powell pushed back even moe strongly in his Wednesday press conference pushed back: A march cut is “probably not the most likely case or what we’d call the base case,” he said. “I don’t think it’s likely the Committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting to identify March as the time to [cut rates].”

Is the debt market ignoring the coming wave of bond supply?

Is the debt market ignoring the coming wave of bond supply?

Right now all that the bond market and indeed all the financial markets care about is when will the Federal Reserve begin to cut interest rates. The consensus is that sometime relatively soon–March or more likely June–the Fed will begin to deliver interest rate cuts that will total somewhere around 100 basis points (at least) for 2024. But what if the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world really aren’t in control of interest rates in the bond market anymore?