Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week ahead expect…
If the markets do decide that Italy is a problem for another day, that means we’ll revert to the trends that set direction before the crisis gained top of the mind status: oil prices (and the likelihood of an increase in production from OPEC), an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve on June 13, and tariffs and the possibility of a U.S./China trade war.
Markets relax, a bit, on Italy crisis
The consensus in financial markets today seems to be that yesterday’s drop on fears that Italy was headed to a crisis that could shake the euro were a bit overstated. This isn’t to say that markets have concluded that the crisis is over–or never existed–just that it won’t bring the end of the EuroZone as we know it tomorrow.
Here we go again on the euro: The bad news is that Italy’s financial crisis is political
The good news is that the European Central Bank, thanks to the global financial crisis and the Greek debt crisis, has mechanisms in place to support Italian bonds, Italian banks, and the Italian financial system. The bad news is that an Italian government has to ask for that help after swearing to be fiscally responsible. At the moment there is, once again, no Italian government. A bid by the populist parties that came in ahead of the field in the latest election was rejected by Italy’s president. And these parties aren’t likely to meet the European Central Bank’s requirements for help.