Forward into the past with tech stocks: We’ve seen this market before
On November 15 in my post on what’s priced in and what’s not, I noted that an upsurge in Covid infections this winter wasn’t priced in. And that evidence of a new wave from Europe where infection rates have headed higher in what might be a preview for the winter in the United States could send stock prices lower. Well, yes indeedy. That exactly what happened today after the Austrian government announced a full lockdown starting on Monday, in response to surging cases of COVID-19. The lockdown will include both those vaccinated and unvaccinated, it will last for 10 days minimum, but could be extended for 10 days further. The fear is that Germany, which is battling its own higher rates of infection, is next.
Nvidia beats: Does this set the stage for the next leg up in stocks?
On Saturday I posted that Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings report on November 17–that is today–and the market reaction to the company’s quarterly earnings report would tell us a lot about market sentiment and the magnitude of any year-end, market melt up rally.
Wall Street analysts were projecting that the company would announced earnings of 95 cents a share for the quarter that ended in October. That would be a huge 58% increase from the 60 cents a share reported for the October 2020 quarter, I
But, I worried, that much of that number was already in the share price. The stock was up 47% in the last month and 133% for the year to the November 15 close. Would the stock drop if all the company did was meet expectations?
Special Report: It’s a Market Melt Up!!! Ten stocks to buy; when to sell; and strategies for long term portfolios–today the first 4 picks
Tolstoy was wrong when he wrote at the beginning of Anna Karenina that “All happy stock markets are alike; each unhappy market is unhappy in its own way.” (That’s what it says in the original Russian, I swear.) Truth is that all happy stock markets are different.
There are the long rallies from valuation bottoms that come after a disaster like the Global Financial Crisis and the Great Recession. There are the sharp quick explosive moves higher that come after the passing of a panic with less damage than expected like that after the Pandemic meltdown in the spring of 2020. And, among all the other happy markets, there are the market melt ups that come after a long bull market has already driven valuations to nose-bleed levels. Sometimes that melt up turns out to be the final blow out stage that comes before a big correction–but not always. And sometimes the melt up just drives stocks to a high where they stagnate while fundamentals catch up with prices. I believe we’re in the midst of a market melt up now. In this Special Report I’m going to outline the ways in which this “happy” market is different; give you advice on how to adapt this rally to your portfolio goals; and finally give you 10 picks for profiting from this melt-up.
With stocks at record highs, what’s priced in (or not)?
With stocks trading at record highs, I’d argue that nothing is as important as what “news” is priced in–or not. If stocks have priced in all the likely good news, then there’s much less to drive prices higher–and much more expansive possibilities for drops on disappointments. If there’s likely good news that’s not yet priced in, then stocks have potential fuel to move high. And, on the other hand, if bad news is priced in and fails to materialize, then, hey, we’re going higher from here. And if bad news isn’t priced in, then current record prices aren’t sustainable.
Adding Advanced Micro Devices to Jubak Picks and Volatility Portfolios on Monday
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), one of the hottest momentum stocks in the melt-up market, seems to have recovered its trend. So I’m adding the shares to my Volatility Portfolio on Monday. Please regard this as a short-term trade.The company’s fundamentals also look solid with very good growth prospects from the new chip line up. So I’ll be adding the shares to my 12-18 month Jubak Picks Portfolio on Monday.
Fed, jobs report clears the deck for an end of the year market melt up
The dominoes keep tumbling and I think we’re now set up for one of those extremely volatile market melt ups through early January. Why do I believe that? And what’s a melt up look like? Glad you asked.
The markets say “Happy Holidays!”
This morning it doesn't matter that the Part 1 U.S.-China trade agreement isn't signed and that we don't have more than the bare, vague outlines of the deal. This morning it doesn't matter that the smashing Conservative Party victory in the United Kingdom elections...
Are we witnessing a market melt up?
I find that I can’t move on to rebalancing individual portfolios until I’ve dealt with two more big potential problems for investors in 2018. Today’s topic: The possibility that we’re in the midst of a market melt up. What’s a melt up?
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
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