February 6, 2024 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
I think we’re seeing stocks put in a top. Not immediate–I think we’ve got the impending Federal Reserve interest rate cuts to help stretch out this rally into a sideways move. But the signs are there. And the most important signs aren’t the “overvaluation” of the Magnificent 7 stocks or the narrow leadership in this market. (More on why this top isn’t likely to lead to a Bear Market in tomorrow’s post “Why this isn’t 1999.) Nope. To me the most important sign if the big announcement from Meta Platforms (META) of a $50 billion stock buy back and the initiation of 50 cents a share dividend, the company’s first.
December 15, 2020 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
In most years companies buy back more shares then they sell. That creates a steady upward bias to stock prices simply because there are fewer shares to buy. On average over the last decade companies bought back $3 in stock for every dollar they raised. Not in 2020. For th first time since the global financial crisis year of 2009, companies will issue as much stock as they sell
December 14, 2020 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
I see all the signs of a market that’s moved beyond enthusiasm to excess. This stage in a market is called many things. A market melt. Forming a top. You get the idea. We won’t, of course, know if the current levels constitute a top until we get a sustained downturn. And waiting for that confirming downturn can take a while and be very painful if you’ve tried to time the turn with shorts or Put Options and turn out to have been early. The topping process can go on for a while.
January 23, 2020 | Daily JAM |
On Tuesday after the close of trading Netflix (NFLX) smashed through fourth quarter projections by adding 8.76 million subscribers globally in the quarter. That easily beat analyst estimates for the quarter of 7.9 million new subscribers. For the quarter earnings came...
August 30, 2016 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Volatility |
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March 24, 2014 | Uncategorized |
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July 17, 2013 | Daily JAM, Videos |
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January 14, 2013 | Daily JAM, Long Term |
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December 1, 2011 | Daily JAM, Videos |
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