Please Watch My New YouTube video: Trend of the Week Watch Nvidia

Please Watch My New YouTube video: Trend of the Week Watch Nvidia

Today’s Trend of the Week is Watch Nvidia. NVIDIA (NASDAQ) reports earnings today, August 23. The consensus is that the company will report $1.69 a share, up from last year’s $0.32. And that revenue growth will come in with 65% growth.
This stock has been one of the big gainers this year and has effectively led the market. The shares recently hit a bit of a plateau until Monday, when the stock popped 8% on earnings optimism. The stock trades at a trailing PE of 238 but the big earnings jump should help with that. So what do you do with this stock that is leading the market, but is also known to be overpriced and therefore somewhat risky? You go with the momentum. Follow the market to see if investors start to sell and take profits after earnings, or if people continue to buy, even at a high price, with hopes for even greater gains. This will be an indicator of how momentum in the market is going, especially for the booming AI sector.

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Houston, We Have a Trend Problem

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Houston, We Have a Trend Problem

This week’s Trend of the Week is Houston, We Have a Trend Problem. The problem with trends is that the data is always old. There is always a lag. Inflation numbers for March will come out on April 28, jobs numbers for March came out on April 7, and GDP first quarter numbers will be in around April 27. These month-old numbers tell us where we’ve been, but we need to know where we’re going–and importantly, the speed at which we’re moving. It’s not just the trend, it’s the momentum of the trend. Inflation is undoubtedly coming down. What we don’t know is how the combination of Fed actions, a slowing economy, and the banking crisis are affecting inflation and economic growth. Currently, core inflation numbers are around 4.5%, and the Fed still wants those numbers closer to 2%, but for how long will the Fed continue to raise rates, and how close will the central bank actually get to 2%?m All that is still up in the air. At the time of filming, the consensus (56%) was that the Fed will raise rates another 25 basis points in May, and then pause. The decision is data-dependent, but the problem with that is that the data right now is all past data. The data doesn’t show real-time momentum. Forward-looking data doesn’t actually exist, but boy, would it be great if it did!

Will Netflix earnings on Thursday shock the market?

Will Netflix earnings on Thursday shock the market?

Right now Wall Street analysts project that on Thursday, January 19, Netflix (NFLX) will report earnings of just 44 cents a share for the fourth quarter of 2022. That would be a huge drop from the $1.33 the company reported in the fourth quarter of 2021. If Netflix reports as expected, will the stock market shudder lower? After all, the Netflix results would be very similar to the negative reports from the big banks so far this earnings season. And it might foreshadow disappointing earnings from the technology companies that began reporting on January 24 with Microsoft (MSFT). Probably not. Although I think it should.

Special Report: When will the selling stop? When to buy? Picks #4-#7 of 10

Special Report: When will the selling stop? When to buy? Picks #4-#7 of 10

In the first section of this Special Report: When will the selling stop? When to buy What to buy” posted back on January 11, I said that I’d look to buy in tiers. And thus stagger my buying to take account of any earnings season selling and any volatility around the Fed’s January 26 meeting. In the first tier, I said, back on January 11, I said I’d look for former momentum and earnings growth favorites, especially in the technology sector, that had taken big hits in the selling from the November 19 high. The three first tier buys were Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and and the first three buys back on January 11 were Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, and Adobe (ADBE). I said I’d name my second tier picks after bank earnings. Which means today.

Today, Friday November 27, smacks of desperation–to catch up with the indexes

Today, Friday November 27, smacks of desperation–to catch up with the indexes

It was a short session today, the Friday after Thanksgiving, on Wall Street but that didn’t stop the Standard & Poor’s 500 and the NASDAQ Composite from setting new all-time records. The S&P 500 closed up 0.24%. The NASDAQ Composite finished ahead by 0.92%. Volume, as you might expect, was relatively light–just 60% of the average daily volume this year. That didn’t prevent some really big moves today. But, by and large, these moves didn’t take place where you might have expected.

The big role of computer program trading in the recent sell off in U.S. stocks is actually a positive, history says, for an early recovery

The big role of computer program trading in the recent sell off in U.S. stocks is actually a positive, history says, for an early recovery

Earlier than usual end of the year profit-taking. Sector rotation. Stretched valuations. All seem to have played a role in the retreat in momentum stock that has driven U.S. stocks lower in the last 10 days. And now we’re getting experts on program trading pointing at the role of computers in the slump and especially systematic trading programs that rely on weighting what the strategy calls “factors” to guide buys and sells.

If it ain’t one thing, it’s another for U.S. stocks today

A little bit of everything has hit U.S. stocks today. A sell off in momentum stocks is leading the market lower again. That seems partly disappointment that good news from Apple (AAPL) didn’t take the S&P 500 through resistance at 1885 yesterday. Part seems to be disappointment at Amazon.com’s earnings. Part seems to be worry over being long equities over a weekend that could see violence in Ukraine.