Special Report: My 10 Picks for how to invest in climate change NOW–3 first 3 picks, LAZR, PLBF and GWH

Here’s how I characterize developments in the global climate crisis in 2023: It was the year when hot air confronted cold cash. And as you might expect cold cash won.

Which gives me the framework for how to invest in the global climate crisis over the next 12 to 24 months. I’m going to use natural gas to develop my investing paradigm. And then I’m going to give you four sectors in which to concentrate your investments. And 10 specific picks for your money. I expect that I’ll be revisiting the topic of how to invest in the global climate crisis again before too long–because I think today’s paradigm will need substantial revision not all that far down the road.

In Part 1 today, I’m going to develop that paradigm. In Part 2 I’m going to tell you why I think nuclear energy, utility scale battery storage, wind and solar are the sectors that deserve your investment cash and attention (and why electric vehicles don’t make the cut now.) In Part 3, I’ll give you the ten stocks and ETFs I’d pick for these four sectors.

U.S. heat wave to expand–but it’s not just a U.S. problem

U.S. heat wave to expand–but it’s not just a U.S. problem

Heat advisories now stretch from northern Florida to southern New Mexico, and excessive-heat warnings have been issued for much of Texas and parts of New Mexico and Arizona and along the Gulf Coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. New Orleans is included in the zone of greatest heat risk, with actual air temperatures around 100 degrees and humidity that will push heat indexes to 115 degrees. Excessive-heat watches have been posted for the lower Mississippi Valley and include Memphis and Nashville; Huntsville and Birmingham; Jackson, Mississippi; Little Rock, Arkansas; and Poplar Bluff, Missouri. “Extreme heat and humidity will significantly increase the potential for heat-related illnesses,” cautioned the National Weather Service, “particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities.” The heat will relent somewhat into early next week for portions of the Southeast and Mid-South, but there is no immediate end in sight for Texas, where blistering and brutal conditions look to continue as a heat doe lingers over Texas. And this is only the latest U.S. manifestation of a global problem.

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week

This week’s Trend of the Week: A Bottom in Natural Gas? I think so. United States Natural Gas Fund (NYSEARCA: UNG) is down 50% YTD. The problem with UNG is that expectations were that Europe would be buying a lot of gas due to sanctions on Russian commodities. What happened instead was that Europe did a great job finding ways to fill in the gaps and had a fairly mild winter. On March 28, natural gas was trading at $2.08/million BTUs. At $2.50, many natural gas producers are actually losing money. That means we’re going to see companies slow down production. While inventory was down the slightest bit on March 17 from the week before, overall inventory is still way above normal for this point in the year. So right now, as we move into the summer cooling season, and while prices are depressed, it’s a good time to build positions in this commodity.

For the year ahead: My Forecast of the 10 Trends that Will Move Stocks in 2023

For the year ahead: My Forecast of the 10 Trends that Will Move Stocks in 2023

The stock market in 2022 was extraordinarily event-driven. The Federal Reserve’s decision to, finally, raise interest rates and to raise them fast with four 75 basis point jumps during the year. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resulting shock to energy and food commodity markets. OPEC’s decision to reduce production. The big slowdown in China’s economy as the country first fought Covid with the lockdowns of major cities and industrial regions and then reversed course to no Covid policy at all. The unexpected (by many) ability of Democrats in Congress and the Biden administration to pass legislation with unprecedented levels of spending on clean energy technology and other efforts to slow the rise in global temperatures. 2023 will come with its own set of new (and revisited) market-moving events. Once again I think we’re looking at a year where market trends aren’t determined by revenue and earnings but by big events outside the market itself. Here’s my forecast of the 10 events (or trends or whatever) that will move stocks in 2023. I’ve tried to put them in some rough kind of chronological order so you’ll know when to what for events to unfold and ripple out into the financial markets.

No surprise–Putin raises his bet in Ukraine

No surprise–Putin raises his bet in Ukraine

Faced with the alternative of admitting that recent Ukrainian counter-attacks have sent Russia’s military reeling, Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to up his game in Ukraine. So far, today, the markets remain focused on the meeting of the Federal Reserve and the U.S. central bank’s decision on interest rates. But I’d try to spare a few brain cells for the likely effects on commodities such as wheat and natural gas from these signs of escalation. Europea natural gas inventories are now at 86% full, just above the 5-year average. That suggests that gas prices will move higher but that this winter won’t see widespread shortages and prices. I think it’s likely to be another story for prices in 2023 when European countries need to scramble to refill these reserves. I own U.S.Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG) and the Teucrium Corn Fund ETF (CORN) and Teucrium Wheat Fund ETF (WEAT) in my online portfolios. I own all three in my personal portfolios.

Putin likely to lash out after Russian setbacks in Ukraine–watch wheat, corn, and natural gas

Putin likely to lash out after Russian setbacks in Ukraine–watch wheat, corn, and natural gas

News this weekend that Ukrainian forces had pushed to the Russian border with the country in the Kharkiv oblast is likely to provoke a big reaction from Russian President Vladimir Putin. It’s not just that Ukrainian forces have advanced but that they have racked up gains of as much as 70 kilometers amidst reports that Russian soldiers have fled after throwing down their weapons. This is a major embarrassment and Russia’s president doesn’t react well to embarrassments. Already Russian military forces have unleashed rocket and bomb attacks on the city of Kharkiv, targeting power plants and other civilian infrastructure. I don’t expect Putin’s response to stop there.

Trend toward higher natural gas prices stays on track

Trend toward higher natural gas prices stays on track

Yesterday, August 11, U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exported Freeport LNG said it was still pulling in small amounts of natural gas from pipelines at its shuttered LNG export plant in Texas to fuel a power plant. And, this is the important part, it still expects the liquefaction plant, which shut due to a fire on June 8, to return to at least partial service in early October. Thursday, U.S. gas futures jumped about 8% on talk of increased gas flows to the Freeport LNG plant, a drop in gas output, and forecasts for more demand for the fuel over the next two weeks than previously expected. The U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG) gained 6.06%.

Please watch my new YouTube video: Quick Pick U.S. Natural Gas Fund

Please watch my new YouTube video: Quick Pick U.S. Natural Gas Fund

My one-hundredth-and-thirty-first YouTube video “Quick Pick: U.S. Natural Gas Fund” went up today. Natural gas hit an 18-year high in the United States on Thursday, May, even as oil was sliding. Consequently I’m looking for a pick that focuses on natural gas and not oil: my pick this week is United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG). I’ll use today’s drop in the price of natural gas and the 8.04% decline in UNG to add this pick to my Volatility Portfolio on Monday. I think that we’re going to see even higher gas prices as the war in Ukraine (and sanctions against Russia) grind on and as everyone rushes to build stock piles ahead of the inter heating season.

Trend toward higher natural gas prices stays on track

U.S. and Europe plan to reduce dependence on Russian natural gas–somehow

The United States and Europe have reached an agreement to expand U.S. supplies of natural gas to Europe in an effort to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian natural gas.
Details are bit vague. And wishful thinking is a big ingredient. The basis problem is that Russia supplies Europe with 150 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year via pipelines. U.S. and other sources can’t match increase production to that level and the infrastructure to get the gas to Europe simply doesn’t exist. Yet the goal has now been put on paper and the agreement promises that Europe will get at least 15 billion cubic meters of additional LNG supplies by the end of the year. Even though it is not clear where the natural gas welcome from or how ti will be delivered.