April 7, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
This week I expect the market to put its obsession with the Federal Reserve, inflation, and interest rates on hold, and switch to watching earnings reports for the first quarter of 2024. The first batch of earnings–the Big Banks JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC)–hits the wires on Friday, April 12–with Netflix (NFLX) to begin tech/momentum earnings reports on Tuesday, April 18. I think it would be an overstatement to say that the quarter’s earnings reports are make or break for this rally–the economic news is just too strong and interest rate cuts loom out there somewhere even if no one can say just when. But this quarter will provide an important data point in the “Stocks have climbed too far, too fast” vs. “This rally can run higher on a strong economy” debate. And the first set of high-profile earnings looks likely to throw some cold water on the most fevered market optimists.
October 14, 2023 | Daily JAM |
Look for a big earnings test for regional banks and a feW clues about consumer goods, airlines, and autos. Last week ended with great earnings reports from Big Banks JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C). Big Bank earnings continue this week with Bank of America (BAC) and Goldman Sachs (GS) reporting on Tuesday. But the important news for the financial sector will come from the dozens of earnings reports from regional banks.
April 19, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Last night after the market close, Netflix (NFLX) reported first-quarter 2023 results that showed new subscribers grew by just 1.75 million in the first quarter against expectations for 2.3 million additions. Earnings and revenue projections disappointed investors: Netflix said it anticipates earning $2.84 per share on $8.24 billion in the second quarter. Wall Street analysts had forecast earnings of $3.05 per share on $8.5 billion in revenue. For the first quarter, revenue and earnings for the first quarter roughly matched Wall Street consensus estimates. Revenue was $8.16 billion versus an expected $8.18 billion. Earnings per share were $2.88 versus $2.86 expected Today, April 19, shares of Netflix were down 3.34% as of noon New York time.
April 15, 2023 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
I expect the earnings season story for the coming week to continue to be dominated by banks. But whereas last week, Friday specifically, was all about big banks, this coming week will be dominated by earnings reports from regional and smaller banks. That’s the very kind of banks that are the focus of worry about the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. We will, however, get a sprinkle of earnings reports from non-bank names just to add some spice to the week.
January 18, 2023 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, MSFT, Top 50 Stocks |
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-twenty-fifth YouTube video: Get Ready for the Tech Earnings Flood. This week is a bit of a breather. Last week ended with bank earnings and next week begins the flood of tech stock earnings. This week we’ve got Alcoa, which used to be a market indicator but that is no longer the case (thankfully, since Wall Street estimates have them at a loss of $.75 for this quarter.) Netflix is up next on Thursday, January 19. Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) will show +$.44 this quarter versus +$1.33 last year at this time. I think this will likely be the trend with tech stocks. Lower earnings and slower revenue growth year-over-year. 2022 has been tough for technology companies and earnings will likely be lower for the fourth quarter than in 2021. Look closely at future estimates and guidance. Where are they going from here? (the bad news for the fourth quarter is widely expected.) Microsoft will report earnings on January 24, shortly after announcing it will be laying off 10,000 employees. After that, we’ll get Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), on January 26, and then the floodgates open with more and more technology companies announcing earnings and setting the tone for the stock market at the start of 2023.
January 17, 2023 | Daily JAM |
Right now Wall Street analysts project that on Thursday, January 19, Netflix (NFLX) will report earnings of just 44 cents a share for the fourth quarter of 2022. That would be a huge drop from the $1.33 the company reported in the fourth quarter of 2021. If Netflix reports as expected, will the stock market shudder lower? After all, the Netflix results would be very similar to the negative reports from the big banks so far this earnings season. And it might foreshadow disappointing earnings from the technology companies that began reporting on January 24 with Microsoft (MSFT). Probably not. Although I think it should.
October 18, 2022 | Daily JAM |
After the close today, October 18, Netflix (NFLX) reported fiscal third-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street projections and added far more subscribers than analysts had expected. After falling 1.73% in the regular session, the stock added 14.02% in after-hours trading.
May 19, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Initial claims for unemployment moved up to 218,000 last week . That was the highest level since the week that ended on January 22. And an increase of 21,000 from the revised total of 197,000 the week before. But even though the official report is only a week old, it’s not capturing what seems to be an upward trend in the announcement of layoffs.
April 20, 2022 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Videos, You Might Have Missed |
My one-hundredth-and-twenty-third YouTube video “Netflix, Inflation, and Demand Destruction” went up today. Today I’m covering Netflix’s (NFLX) crash after releasing its subscriber numbers showing the loss of 200K subscribers for the quarter and predicting a loss of ten times that many for next quarter. I think we are starting to see signs of demand destruction due to ongoing inflation. That demand destruction will only get more severe as the Fed continues to raise rates.
April 20, 2022 | AMZN, COST, Daily JAM, DIS, Jubak Picks |
In this post let me take another step back to look at the one of the larger economic forces revealed by the Netflix miss. I’d argue that the Nexflix miss should put pricing power and questions of what price increases will hurt demand up near the top of your stock picking check list. Especially since the streaming service’ loss of 200,000 subscribers this quarter and the ported loss of 2 million subscribers next quarter qualifies as just the first shoe to drop.
April 19, 2022 | AAPL, Daily JAM, DIS, Jubak Picks, Top 50 Stocks |
Shares of Netflix (NFLX), fell 25.73% today, April 19, in after-hours trading after the company announced first quarter earnings. (In regular trading the shares had gained 3.23%.) The stock was already down 42% for 2022 before today’s after-hours plunge. The bad news: In the first quarter of 2022 Netflix (NFLX) lost 200,000 subscribers. That was a bit short of the company’s guidance for the addition of 2.5 million subscribers for the quarter. And to put a cherry on top of the bad news in the company’s earnings report, Netflix forecast that it would lose another 2 million subscribers in the second quarter of 2022.
April 19, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Here’s what caught my eye yesterday, April 18. For a big change from recent losses, the chip group of stocks was all in the green. And not just by a pinch either. Yesterday Nvidia (NVDA) was up 2.47%: NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) was up 1.91%; Synaptics (SYNA) was up 4.49%; and Qualcomm (QCOM) was up 1.76%. Is something going on in the sector?
