Commodities take another China hit–which gives us something else to watch for a bottom
Two Chinese companies have invoked force majeure clauses in their contracts to refuse delivery of cargoes of liquified natural gas and copper. Chinese buyers have also asked Chilean miners to postpone shipments and China's biggest oil refiner Sinopec Group is likely...
Persistent drip, drip, drip of smaller negative stories out of China today
No big bad news story from China this morning, but the news trend continues to emphasize the downside. For example, this morning a U.S. official said the U.S. is unlikely to extend a waiver allowing American firms to supply China’s Huawei Technologies with technology...
A rally in tech shares disguises return to risk off trading
Shares of Apple (AAPL) climbed 0.21% to lead the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) higher by 0.40% as of 2 p.m. trading in New York. That helped disguise what is otherwise a return to the risk off trading of Monday after Tuesday's rally--although with smaller...
Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week ahead expect…
... nervousness. With the Federal Reserve locked in, seemingly, on an interest rate cut in July, and then strongly inclined to cut rates again in September, no one really wants to step out of this market. We're talking major stimulus for the economy and a major boost...
Disrupted Sector #2 in my Special Report 5 Sectors Facing Disruption: Oil
Each bit of news by itself argues for the disruption of the oil and natural gas sector. Together the two stories add up to a decade that will turn the sector topsy turvy. First, the story you've probably most familiar with since it produced such a big splash in the...
U.S. dollar continues to climb, creating downdraft for emerging markets and oil, and supporting Treasuries
The U.S. Dollar Spot Index (DXY) is up again today, climbing 0.66% to 97.053. Since the index that tracks the dollar against six other major trading currencies bottomed for 2018 back on February 15, the dollar has gained 8.72%. The bulk of those gains are even more...
U.S. stocks gently slide but VIX “fear index” continues retreat
If the market were inclined to sell off today, it could have found plenty of reasons. Under the heading of one-off scary stuff, I'd put:Â Continued tensions between the Saudis and just about everyone else over allegations--which look to be true--that the Saudi...
Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect… Part 2 oil
...but exactly what should we expect about oil? Due to what seems increasingly likely to have been the brutal murder of a moderately critical Saudi journalist by order of the Saudi government in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, relations between the Saudis and many of...
My “best-estimate” scenario for the U.S. stock market for the next 60 days
Let's start with a perhaps less obvious question: Why 60 days? Because that will take us through the historically volatile months of September and October (when fear can beget fear) to the middle of November, which historically tends to mark a turn in the markets...
My baseline U.S. stock market scenario for the next 30 days
So much negative uncertainty from big possible events. Such strong short term earnings fundamentals. How will these all balance out? Before I get to my take on the answer to that question let's take a brief stop to look at what a baseline scenario is and why putting...
Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week ahead expect…
If the markets do decide that Italy is a problem for another day, that means we’ll revert to the trends that set direction before the crisis gained top of the mind status: oil prices (and the likelihood of an increase in production from OPEC), an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve on June 13, and tariffs and the possibility of a U.S./China trade war.
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