February 8, 2024 | Daily JAM, EWY, Mid Term, Perfect Five-ETFs, Stock Alerts |
I try not to argue with cash flows. Especially when I’m making asset allocation decisions. And right now global cash is heading for India. A number of reasons. Portfolio managers looking for diversification need emerging markets exposure and India looks like the best bet. Going long India is, in effect going short China since much of the new India money is essentially old China money fleeing what looks like an economy set to struggle for a while. And there is an India fundamental story based on an economy headed for 7% growth. For all these reasons I’m added the Franklin FTSE India ETF (FLIN) to both my Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio as rep
June 4, 2023 | Daily JAM, EWY, Perfect Five-ETFs |
Deciding to sell the iShares China Large Cap ETF (FXI) out of my Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio wasn’t an especially tough decision. (See my post on May 31 “China’s economy continues to slow–and the problems don’t look temporary–so I’m selling my China ETF out of my Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio.” But that decision left me with a quandary and a hole in the portfolio. The iShares China ETF was, despite its sad performance, filling an important diversification function in the portfolio. So what asset should I add to give the portfolio the “required” non-U.S. exposure. That’s not an easy slot to fill at the moment. China’s economy is struggling and many emerging markets are carrying the big burden of falling commodity prices.
May 31, 2023 | Daily JAM, Perfect Five-ETFs |
The hits just keep on coming. On Wednesday, the release of May numbers on factory activity provided the most recent bit of bad news. China’s official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index dropped to 48.8 this month, down from 49.2 in April, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday. It was the second straight contraction. In this index, a reading above 50 indicates expansion, while anything below that level shows contraction. The index, which mainly covers larger businesses and state-owned companies, is at its lowest level since December. In that month China ended most of its pandemic restrictions early that month. That led to hopes of a big economic rebound. And a strong stock market rally.
Now those hopes look premature or just plain exaggerated.
March 1, 2023 | Daily JAM, EUM, FXI, Perfect Five-ETFs |
China’s manufacturing activity recorded its highest monthly improvement in more than a decade in February, while services also showed stronger-than-expected performance. Home sales rose for the first time in 20 months. Which has helped push Chinese stocks higher–along with the belief that the annual People’s Congress meeting that begins on Sunday will produce new stimulus measures from the central government.
February 6, 2023 | Daily JAM, Perfect Five-ETFs, Videos, Volatility |
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-thirty-third YouTube video: Trend of the Week China Accelerates This week’s Trend of the Week: China Accelerates. There is a horrific death toll in China as the country’s COVID policy changed dramatically, allowing COVID cases to surge wildly, spreading throughout the country and killing possibly a million people, but ultimately resulting (everyone hopes) in immunity. Now, Bloomberg is seeing a pick-up in China’s manufacturing activity and predicts 5.8% GDP growth in 2023, a huge bump from 3% in 2022. You can see this upswing by looking at the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (Nasdaq: FXI) as the market anticipates this GDP growth and a likely stimulus from the People’s Bank of China to make up for problems relating to the COVID crash. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), which is an ETF that tracks at emerging markets as a whole and is heavily influenced by China, is also back on the upswing. I had been shorting EEM as China’s economy was dragging markets down, but I’ll be ending that short now. The bad thing about China being back is that it will start exporting inflation to the global economy, likely to the tune of about 100 basis points. Whether or not this will change the Fed’s timeline for pausing interest rates is unclear at this point. We can expect higher commodity prices, energy prices, and eventually, consumer prices as China continues its upswing. To follow more ETFs, go to my paysite, JubakAM.com.
January 30, 2023 | Daily JAM, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GOLD, Jubak Picks, Perfect Five-ETFs, Volatility |
With the Federal Reserve seemingly winding down its cycle of interest rate increases, a stronger dollar is no longer the big currency market story. Gold is. Gold is back. And for at least the next 3 to 6 months.
July 26, 2022 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Jubak Picks |
With Walmart (WMT) shares down 7.74% as of noon New York time today, July 26, on the company’s warning yesterday about falling revenue, the pool of safe consumer stocks continues to shrink. Which is bad if you owned Walmart or Dollar General (DG), also down today (by 1.88%.) But good (so far) if you owned Coca-Cola (KO) or McDonald’s (MCD), which on the evidence of today’s earnings report are surfing the recession in decent shape. Shares of Coca-Cola were up 1.58% and shares of McDonald’s (MCD) were up 2.51% as of noon.
July 12, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Perfect Five-ETFs, Volatility |
In my July 7 YouTube video: “Quick Pick UUP” I added the Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) to my Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio. (To replace the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) in that portfolio. More on that in another post today.) Today I’m also going to add this dollar ETF to my Volatility Portfolio and to my Jubak Picks Portfolio. I’m setting a target price of $33.20 in the Jubak Picks Portfolio. You should take the fact that I’m adding a dollar position to three portfolios as an indication of how strongly I feel about a continued strong dollar.
July 7, 2022 | Daily JAM, Perfect Five-ETFs, UUP, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-fifty-fifth YouTube video “Quick Pick UUP Dollar ETF” went up today. In my video yesterday (if you missed it, go watch!) I explained why a strong dollar has hit commodity stocks hard, and why I think the dollar will continue to be strong. One strategy I suggested: Investing in an ETF that tracks the dollar. My recommendation here is Invesco Dollar Index Fund (UUP). I’ll be adding it to my ETF Portfolio on my JubakAM.Com subscription site on July 8.
June 13, 2022 | BABA, Daily JAM, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-forty-fourth YouTube video “China Stocks Soar on End to Tech Crackdown” went up today. In the past few weeks–at least before the inflation/interest rate meltdown in U.S. markets,–I’ve seen an uptick in big China stocks like Alibaba (BABA), DiDi Global (DIDI), and JD.com (JD) on signs that Chinese regulators are easing up on tech stocks as the government tries to jump start China’s economy. If you’re looking for stocks that aren’t correlated to the U.S. economy and markets, I think this is a good time to revisit some of these stocks, especially JD.Com and the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI)
April 25, 2022 | Daily JAM, MOO, Perfect Five-ETFs, XLP |
Back on April 11 when I “trimmed” my bank stock positions in my Jubak Picks Portfolio ( https://jubakam.com/trimming-bank-st…wfc-and-kbwb-etf/) by selling Wells Fargo (WFC) and the Invesco KBWB Bank ETF, I said I’d sell that ETF out of my Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio when I had a replacement ETF to offer. Today I’ve got a replacement to recommend and I’m selling the Invesco Bank ETF out of that portfolio. The replacement is the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP).
April 11, 2022 | C, Daily JAM, Dividend Income, JPM, Jubak Picks, KBWB, Perfect Five-ETFs, USB, WFC |
Just want to make sure that no one missed the sell recommendations in yesterday’s Saturday Night Quarterback post. Big banks will kick off another earnings season beginning with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) on Wednesday, April 13. Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) follow on April 14. Bank of America (BAC) reports on April 18. Bank earnings forecasts present a complicated picture for the quarter–which is only appropriate since that’s true of Standard & Poor’s 500 earnings forecasts as a whole.
