August 22, 2023 | Daily JAM, Videos |
Today’s Trend of the Week is What’s the Story? What is happening with the market? Retail numbers are up but stocks are down. Wall Street was expecting a 0.4% growth in retail from June to July, and we got .7%. While big-ticket items like furniture, electronics, and appliances remained down, e-commerce sales were up 1.9%, and consumers seem to be spending money on things like dining out. Retail numbers were much better than expected, so why did stocks go down? At the time of filming (August 15), the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were both down nearly 1%. Part of the reason we’re seeing the market go down, I think, is because money is going into bonds, instead of stocks. The U.S. economy is doing markedly better than the overall international economy, and people are looking to buy Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year treasury went up to 4.27 on August 15 and real yields, (yield minus inflation), are near a 14-year high. The expectation is that inflation will continue to moderate, but the Fed will likely not be cutting rates any time soon. As more money goes toward treasuries, less money is available in the market to buy stocks.
May 16, 2023 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
U.S. retail sales increased in April by 0.4% from March levels. Retail sales figures for March were revised upwards to show a 0.7% decrease. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected a 0.8% increase for the month. (I would note that retail sales numbers are not adjusted for inflation, so real, that is, inflation-adjusted, retail sales for April were essentially flat since the all-items Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in April.) Still, the increase in nominal retail sales was the first in three months after the 0.7% drop in March and February. Today’s report does re-enforce one troubling trend in consumer spending.
February 21, 2023 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, WMT |
Today, February 21, Walmart (WMT) reported s 76% year-over-year jump in earnings to $1.71 a share. Wall Street analysts had forecast earnings of $1.52 a share for the fourth quarter. Revenue rose 7.3% to $164 billion. Comparable store sales gained 8.3%. All that pushed the company’s shares higher today with the stock up 0.59% at the close. But Walmart’s cautious guidance for the rest of 2023 helped send the general market lower.
January 18, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
U.S. retail sales fell 1.1% in December from November, the Department of Commerce reported this morning. Commerce also revised November sales figures to show a drop of 1% from October instead of the originally reported 0.6% decline. The figures are seasonally adjusted (which always introduces an element of uncertainty) but they don’t reflect price changes and some of the month-to-month drop could be a result of declining inflation. The decline might be a reflection of a falling inflation rate in November and December. Could be. Or maybe consumers are cutting back on spending as they anticipate a slowing economy or as they read about another big tech industry layoff.
November 28, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
In-store traffic at brick-and-mortar retailers grew by a modest 2.9% on Black Friday weekend from 2021, preliminary numbers from Sensormatic Solutions show. (The figure isn’t adjusted for inflation. CPI inflation ran at a 7.7% rate in October.) Online sales during the biggest U.S. shopping day of the year rose 2.3% to $9.12 billion, Adobe Analytics said Saturday. That was slightly ahead of the company’s initial projection of $9 billion. (This number isn’t adjusted for inflation either.)
November 16, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, OTLY, Short Term |
U.S. retail sales rose in October for a third month. The value of overall retail purchases increased 1.7% last month, the most in seven months, the Commerce Department said today, November 16. Excluding gas and motor vehicles, sales gained 1.4% in October. The figures aren’t adjusted for inflation. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 1.4% advance in overall retail sales.
October 15, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
U.S. retail sales rose by 0.7% in September. That follows an upwardly revised 0.9% gain in August, the Commerce Department reported today. The biggest surprise came in autos. Motor vehicle and parts dealer sales rose 0.5% in September after a 3.3% decline in August. Excluding autos, retail sales advanced 0.8% in September. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for a 0.2% decline in overall sales and a 0.5% rise excluding autos.
July 16, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
U.S. retail sales surged 18.0% in June from June 2020, the Commerce Department reported today. Demand for goods remained strong but spending is clearly shifting back to services. Stocks fell despite the good news with economic recovery and post-vaccine stocks taking the biggest hit. The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) fell 1.23% on the day. The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) gained 0.20%.
April 15, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Retail sales rose a stunning 9.8% in March from February’s pace, the Commerce Department reported today, April 15. In the earlier month retail sales fell 2.7%.
January 15, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The present–or more precisely the very recent past–didn’t look so good this morning, January 15. U.S. retail sales declined by 0.7% in December and the Commerce Department revised November to a drop of 1.4%. The unadjusted blue of sales rose by just 0.6% year over year in 2020. That’s the smallest gain in 11 years. Nobody expected the December retail sales numbers to be anything other than grim, however, and by themselves these figures wouldn’t have been enough to dent stock prices. The market has a strong recent history of looking past any negative news in the present because with the roll out of coronavirus vaccines with future looks so promising. But the future also disappointed today.
December 16, 2020 | Daily JAM |
U.S. total retail sales slumped 1.1 percent in November, the Commerce Department reported today, Wednesday, December 16. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a smaller drop of 0.3%.
June 14, 2020 | Daily JAM |
... quite week on the official economic news front should leave the headlines room to concentrate on the continued George Floyd protests and the coronavirus numbers from the re-opening economy. But that doesn't mean there's no economic news from official sources. So...
