August 1, 2022 | Daily JAM |
I ended my recent post “This looks like the Bear Market rally I’ve been waiting for” on my subscription JubakAM.com site by saying “Enjoy the ride but look to sell shares of companies that look most exposed to the return of recession/high interest rates/inflation worries. That post had been up for all of 18 minutes before I got the perfectly reasonable question “Like what?” And I promised an answer so here are my preliminary thoughts on what I’d look to sell in a Bear Market rally
July 13, 2022 | Daily JAM |
In June Starbucks and Dunkin’ saw a year-over-year drop in monthly visits of 7.8% and 4.1%, respectively.
April 20, 2022 | AMZN, COST, Daily JAM, DIS, Jubak Picks |
In this post let me take another step back to look at the one of the larger economic forces revealed by the Netflix miss. I’d argue that the Nexflix miss should put pricing power and questions of what price increases will hurt demand up near the top of your stock picking check list. Especially since the streaming service’ loss of 200,000 subscribers this quarter and the ported loss of 2 million subscribers next quarter qualifies as just the first shoe to drop.
March 25, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, LULU, Stock Alerts |
Projections schedule a potential Recession for the second half of 2022 or 2023. Fears of that impending trend will begin to be felt in stock prices before that. The sector most likely to feel the effects of any Recession–and thus the sector most likely to first feel the anticipation of that Recession on stock prices–is what Standard & Poor’s calls Consumer Discretionary” stocks. (The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) tracks these stocks for the S&P 500 index.) In my YouTube video yesterday, I flagged three stocks in this sector to sell ahead of any potential Recession–Netflix (NFLX), Starbucks (SBUX), and Lululemon Athletica (LULU). Of these I said I would sell Lululemon first
March 24, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, LULU, Videos |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and fourteenth YouTube video “Three Recession Sells” went up today.This week’s video takes a look at what I’m calling consumer discretionary companies and recommends that this kind of company should be your first sell as we head toward a Recession. These are places where consumers looking to save money in future economic downturn might cut back spending. I think Starbucks (SBUX), Lululemon (LULU), and Netflix (NFLX) are all stocks to avoid through the end of the year as we see a recession on the horizon. More coverage of this on my sites as well including 10 stocks to own during a Recession on my subscription JubakAM.com site.
July 21, 2020 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
Of course, there isn't actually a Republican bill in the Senate yet, but in a floor speech today Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said “The American economy needs another shot of adrenaline.” McConnell also noted that infections are “climbing in hot spots around...
July 16, 2020 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Initial jobless claims in regular state programs totaled a seasonally adjusted 1.3 million in the week ended July 11, down just 10,000 from the prior week, the Labor Department reported this morning. That's the smallest drop in the new claims since March and feeds...
June 29, 2020 | AAPL, CRUS, Daily JAM, DIS, NXPI, PANW, SHAK, Short Term, TWLO |
I'd like to see this pattern season for a few more days--until next week I'd say--but I think I see a promising trading strategy for the second quarter earnings season that begins, in my mind at least, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) before the market open on Tuesday, July...
June 10, 2020 | Daily JAM, SBUX |
Today, June 10, Starbucks (SBUX) CEO Kevin Johnson wrote in an open letter to customers and investors that the company expects to lose more than $3 billion in revenue in its fiscal third quarter, which ends on June 28, due to the coronavirus pandemic. (The company...
April 2, 2020 | Daily JAM, Dip-O-Meter, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
Okay, I simply don't understand how the government could report 6.65 million new claims for unemployment in the week ended March 28--up from 3.31 million (revised) the week before--and stocks climb. As of 11:15 a.m. New York time the Standard & Poor's 500 was up...
June 21, 2018 | Daily JAM, Stock Alerts |
One of my core beliefs after running the Jubak Picks portfolio for more than 20 years now is that when the reason I picked a stock to buy evaporates, then it's time to sell. So today I'm selling Starbucks (SBUX) out of my Jubak Picks portfolio. When I added the stock...
January 29, 2018 | Daily JAM, SBUX, Stock Alerts |
Blame it on Christmas Tree Frappuccino. On Thursday, January 25, after the market close Starbucks (SBUX) reported December (fiscal 2018 first quarter) earnings of 58 cents a share (excluding one-time tax benefits.) The results were ugly on the revenue side where the...