September 26, 2023 | AAPL, ADBE, ALB, AMAT, EUM, GOLD, LAC, Morning Briefing, MSFT, NVDA, PILBF, RWM, SCCO, Short Term, Special Reports, UUP, Volatility |
So what do you do with your portfolio for the rest of 2023? And what’s your best strategy to be prepared for 2024? In Part 1 of this Special Report I laid out the 10 developments that I thought would drive the financial markets for the rest of 223 and into 2024. Today, in Part 2, I’m going to give you the first 2 of 10 moves to take–with as much detail and as many specifics as possible–that you should be making now to position your portfolio for the uncertainties of the last quarter of 2023.
September 14, 2023 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Jubak Picks, Mid Term, SCCO, Top 50 Stocks |
The People’s Bank of China cut the amount of cash banks must hold in reserve for the second time this year. The move is an effort to boost flagging economic growth in China. The bank could have cut its benchmark interest rate in pursuit of the same goal. But that would have led to more selling against the yuan and the People’s Bank has been busy in the trenches in recent weeks trying to prop up the yuan agains the dollar. The question, of course, is whether the cut in reserve requirements will be enough, without a reduction in interest rates, to revive growth in China’s economy.
June 14, 2023 | ADBE, ALB, AMAT, CMI, Daily JAM, Dividend Income, GOOG, JCI, Jubak Picks, Long Term, MSFT, NVDA, SCCO, Top 50 Stocks |
I think a well-constructed portfolio should resemble an onion. (Yes, to continue the analogy, it may make you cry in the short term, but the end result after cooking time is yummy.) At the center of that onion is a core built of stocks with extremely high, risk-adjusted potential rates of return. These stocks won’t deliver the kind of huge gains you can reap from investing in a risky bet–if everything turns out right for that company and its stock. But neither are they likely to crash and burn because something goes wrong at the company. These core portfolio stocks will drop if the market as a whole heads south, but they will drop less and recover faster. These aren’t buy-and-forget, or hold-forever stocks. They can soar to unreasonable valuations at times and an active investor should take profits at some point of overvaluation. (I did a YouTube video recently (you can find it on any of my sites) on when to sell a very overvalued Nvidia, for example.) And they can trade at big discounts to fair value (which is, of course, when the steely-eyed among us will buy) because management has made a mistake or between the industry in which they do business is slumping, or because the market for the company’s goods and services has taken an unexpected direction. At that point, you’ll need to consider selling or adding to your positions depending on your analysis of how long the damage might last and how bad it is. But the point of this core to your stock portfolio is that these are companies that will deliver index-beating results with relatively small risks. Which will enable you, the investor, to plan how to achieve your financial goals with relatively less worry and uncertainty. So, without further ado, here’s my list of 10 stocks for a core portfolio–with the very important “whys” for each pick.
March 8, 2023 | Daily JAM, FQVLF, Millennial, SCCO |
First Quantum Minerals (FQVLF) has reached an agreement on a new concession contract with Panama’s government over its huge Cobre Panama copper mine. The agreeent, assuming tht a final signing goes ahead, would end a months-long dispute that has halted ore processing and export shipments. The Cobre Panama mine accounted, before the dispute, for 1.5% of global copper production.
October 5, 2022 | Daily JAM, FCX, FQVLF, SCCO |
Copper gained after the London Metal Exchange said it will restrict new deliveries of the metals from Russia’s Ural Mining & Metallurgical Co. and one of its subsidiaries.
May 17, 2022 | ALB, Daily JAM, DAL, DE, DIS, FQVLF, Long Term, MRVL, NVDA, PFE, SCCO, USB, Volatility |
In my weekend Saturday Night Quarterback I said that this week would, probably, answer the question of whether Friday’s big bounce was just a bounce, the start of a buy on the dip rally, or even a bear market rally with a bit of staying power. Two days into the week I think the market action is moving in favor of a bear market rally, one of those often quite powerful upside moves that punctuate extended bear markets.
May 2, 2022 | CMI, Daily JAM, DNNGY, ES, FQVLF, JCI, LICY, Long Term, SCCO, Special Reports, Top 50 Stocks |
All you have to do to find the high profits that will make the risk of investing in climate change stocks worthwhile is to focus on sectors (1) where the rewards are solid and the risk is quantifiable, (2) where companies are making profit the old-fashioned way by building out networks and then charging high rents to use them, by (3) carefully targeting a few technologies (wind and solar and hydrogen and electric cars) that will be part of any mix of solutions, and (4) by investing in bottlenecks that are likely to drive prices up (and provide good profits for companies that resolve the bottleneck.
March 21, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Monday was a great day to be invested in stocks. As long as you were invested in commodity stocks.
February 14, 2022 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Special Reports |
To get to my 10 picks for my Special Report: A New Core Portfolio for a New Market, let me start with the second half of that title, the new market part. Why do I think we’re headed into a new market–and what kind of stock is this new market likely to reward with gains? And then onto my 10 picks for a New Core Portfolio.
January 17, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My eighty-ninth YouTube video “Trend of the Week: A new commodity super cycle” went up today.
January 12, 2022 | Daily JAM, FQVLF, Millennial, Stock Alerts |
Copper prices rose 3.54% on the London Metals Exchange today to $10,064 a metric ton. And that looks like just the beginning of a classic commodity run based on supply shortages in the copper industry and increases in demand from growth in electric cars and renewable energy technologies. Inventories at the London Metals Exchange now sit at multi-year lows. Goldman Sachs recently increased its forecast for copper to $12,000 a metric ton and sees a 20% upside for copper in 2022. Bank of America recently put a $20,000 price target on copper by 2025. Today, January 12, copper stocks were on the march.
September 20, 2021 | ALB, Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The Standard & Poor’s 500 fell another 1.70% today and it’s now down 3.94% from the September 2 high. As the index dropped last week (again) and over the weekend, lots of Wall Street money managers said Hey, stocks were over-valued and news from Beijing and Washington (and places in between) is negative, but if stocks drop 5% we will be buyers. It looks like might get to test that conviction sooner than anyone expected. Which way will things break on another decline?
