March 13, 2023 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Top 50 Stocks, Videos |
This week’s Trend of the Week is Voter Suppression…in China. During the most recent National People’s Congress in China, two people were notably not invited–entrepreneurs Tony and Pony Ma, the heads of Alibaba and Tencent. Other entrepreneurs were also notable for their absence. Xi Jinping has made it clear that entrepreneurs have a much smaller role in his economy going forward, as he looks to consolidate power in the hands of the Chinese Communist Party and prevent any potential competition from power centers. Xi’s new policies, coming out of the National People’s Congress, focus on spending by state-run businesses and emphasize consumer spending, as opposed to infrastructure, as a source of economic stimulus. So how should you invest in China? Despite Pony Ma’s absence at the People’s Congress, Tencent Holdings (OTCMKTS: TCEHY) remains at the forefront of Chinese innovation and technology. It’s clear that China will not adopt US-made chatbots and will develop its own. Tencent looks likely to take a leading role in that effort. The company is also the dominant game producer in the world and gets a lot of its revenue from outside of China. It’s the China stock I’d look at for the long term. In the short term, I’d look at JD.com, which is well-suited to get a bounce from the emphasis on consumer spending. The current price is a good entry point. I’ll be adding it to my JubakPicks.com portfolio tomorrow.
November 2, 2022 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Top 50 Stocks |
On Tuesday, November 1, Chinese stocks roared back on an unverified online rumor that the government had formed a committee to assess scenarios on how the country could end its Covid lockdown policy. Today, that rally has stopped dead after the Chinese Foreign Ministry said it was unaware of such a committee and after the government announced a seven-day Covid lockdown at the factory that produces Apple’s iPhone
August 17, 2022 | BABA, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, TCEHY, Volatility |
When I added Alibaba (BABA) to my Jubak’s Picks Portfolio on April 29, 2022, and Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) to my Volatility Portfolio on January 3, 2022, I thought two things were about to happen in China. First, I thought that the People’s Bank would unleash enough stimulus to more than compensate for the slowdown in China’s economy. And, second, I thought that we’d seen the end of the regulatory crackdown on China’s big entrepreneurial technology companies. I got both trends wrong.
August 16, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Volatility |
If the return of the Bear Market is very likely, WHEN will it return? That’s important because the timing of the return of the Bear determines what strategy we should adopt. If the Bear will go back on the prowl very soon, say somewhere around August 24 (the date of Nvidia’s (NVDA) very important (for the tech sector and more) earnings report) and August 26 through 28, the dates of the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole confab, then you should be battening down the hatches now and selling everything you don’t want to hold through another down leg from the Bear. On the other hand, the return of the Bear could be delayed until early 2023 when it becomes clear to all the interest rate optimists on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve isn’t about to start cutting rates soon. So what do you do?
July 11, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
China’s stocks took a beating today, July 11, on worries that the country is headed for a replay of the Pandemic lockdowns that battered the country’s economy earlier this year. In Shanghai, the flash point in the lockdown that ended just 5 weeks ago, the Covid case-load continued to march high. The city reported 59 new infections on Monday, the fourth day in a row with case numbers above 50. The sharp rise from single digits about a week ago follows the detection of the more contagious BA.5 sub-strain of the omicron variant. Nationally, close to 30 million people, are under some form of movement restriction. In Macao, state regulators moved to close all casinos for the first time since the early stages of the pandemic.
May 17, 2022 | BABA, Daily JAM, FXI, Jubak Picks, Perfect Five-ETFs, TCEHY, Top 50 Stocks |
Today, Tuesday May 17, China’s top economic official, Vice Premier Liu He, said that the government will support the development of digital economy companies and their public stock listings. The comments delivered after a symposium with the CEOs of some of the country’s largest private technology companies came just a day after the National Bureau of Statistics reported that industrial output fell 2.9% in April from April 2021, and that retail sales contracted 11.1%. Financial markets in China and the United States interpreted the remarks as a public show of support for China’s Internet companies
May 3, 2022 | BABA, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, TCEHY, Top 50 Stocks, Videos |
My one-hundredth-and-ninth-eighth YouTube video “Trend of the Week China’s back!” went up today. At the end of last week, the Chinese government sent signals that it would make moves to stimulate the slowing economy amid widespread lockdowns, as well as letting up slightly in its crackdown on internet companies. This has sent Chinese tech stocks soaring, with multiple percentage-point increases in a few hours. In this video, I look at Tencent (TCEHY), JD.com (JD), Alibaba (BABA) and Meituan (MPNGF) and talk about why this is an important trend to follow, but why we’ll only see these stocks go up in the short term before government pressure sends them back down.
March 16, 2022 | Daily JAM, FXI, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, Perfect Five-ETFs, TCEHY, Top 50 Stocks |
Yesterday, March 15, I was thinking that I wished I didn’t own any China stocks at all. Today, March 16, I wished I owned more. Lot’s more.
March 14, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The Chinese government is holding to its Zero tolerance policy and has imposed shutdowns on a large part of the country’s economy to suppress China’s largest surge of OCovid-19 infections since the beginning of the Pandemic.
China has ordered lockdowns in some of its largest factory cities, including Shenzhen, the city that is China’s technology center. The city of 20 million stopped buses and subways on Sunday night and ordered business to close except for supermarkets, farmers’ markets, pharmacies, and port facilities. Donggun, another huge factory city near Shenzhen went into lockdown today. The lockdowns will disrupt companies around the world from Apple (AAPL), which will suffer from the shutdown of factories run by the companies that assemble its products, to MGM Resorts International (MGM), which faces restrictions on travel to its Macao casinos.
March 5, 2022 | Daily JAM, Perfect Five-ETFs, Top 50 Stocks |
In the coming week I expect global stock market action to shift to China. With every other stock market looking almost too risky to invest in, and the recent advice to invest in emerging market stocks, China’s short-term story looks (relatively) very attractiveAt the opening of China’s weekend session of the country’s legislature on Saturday, China’s premier, Li Keqiang, announced that the 2020 growth target for the country’s economy was “around 5.5 percent.”
February 21, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The themes should be familiar by now. The Chinese government’s crackdown on the country’s big tech companies continues. And there’s new bad news from a company thought to be safe from the real estate crisis.
February 8, 2022 | BABA, Daily JAM, FXI, JD, Morning Briefing, Perfect Five-ETFs, TCEHY, Top 50 Stocks |
With the end of the Lunar New Year holiday and the reopening of China’s stock markets, China’s state-backed investment funds have started buying shares of the Chinese stocks traded on U.S. markets. The move follows actions by the People’s Bank of China to inject cash into the economy and financial markets.
