Industrial stocks lag the market: sign that tariff and trade war fears aren’t behind us

Industrial stocks lag the market: sign that tariff and trade war fears aren’t behind us

Today, Monday March 12, the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) fell 1.24%, declining more than either the Standard & Poor’s 500 (down 0.13%) or the Dow Jones Industrial Average (down 0.62%.) I think this is an indication that fears that the Trump administration will still manage to set off a round of trade retaliation to its higher tariffs on steel and aluminum are still with us.  

Tech breakdown starts to look serious

Tech breakdown starts to look serious

The conventional wisdom at the end of last week was that we were witnessing a rotation out of tech shares and into financials and small cap stocks. In other words, nothing to get  too concerned about. Apple (AAPL) was a special case as surveys of retail channels showed weak sales for the iPhone 8. Today, though, the concern is a bit more serious.

Financial sector moves into clear downtrend

Financial sector moves into clear downtrend

Financial stocks rallied strongly after Donald Trump’s victory in the November election for two reasons: A Trump administration would roll back at least some of the regulations enacted to restrain bank risk-taking after the Global Financial crisis, and the Federal Reserve’s schedule for three or four interest rate increases by the end of 2017 would lead to the kind of a steeper yield curve that hikes bank profits. The first of those two reasons is still in place but the second is the subject of increasing market skepticism.

Today’s market move looks pretty random to me–but here are a few possible trends to watch

Today’s market move looks pretty random to me–but here are a few possible trends to watch

Lots of folks out this morning trying to explain why U.S. stocks are up so strongly today after Thursday’s thrashing and two lackluster trading session on Friday and Monday. One explanation I’m hearing a lot is that President Donald Trump sounded “more” presidential in last night’s speech laying out his secret plan for continuing the war in Afghanistan. Another explanation that I’m hearing is that there are rumors of progress in Washington on the Republican tax plan. To which I say, Please… It’s August when lighter trading volumes magnify every wrinkle into the Rockies. The most likely reason that the market is up today is that it was down on Thursday and today the buy the dip trades that didn’t work on Friday and Monday are back on.

Suddenly U.S. stocks seem vulnerable

It’s not like U.S. stocks didn’t have enough to worry about today. For the day the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index closed at 2136.73, off by 1.24%. That was enough to push the S&P 500 below the 50-day moving average. The index has been flirting with that support level since early September. Maybe in this context the warnings issued today by Wall Street technical analysts feel like piling on–or maybe they are exactly what they seem, that is warnings