October 23, 2023 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
I know the bond market is getting most of the headlines at the moment. And it should be. By some measures, volatility in the Treasury market, you know, the old safe haven Treasury market, exceeds volatility in equities. And then there’s the drama of watching the assault on 5% yield on the 10-year Treasury. The drama isn’t just theatrics either. Above 5% yield on the 10-year Treasury there’s an increasing likelihood that something in this over-stretched credit market will break. But…you can’t ignore the stock market. The technical picture is increasly scary. Here too something looks like it could break–and not in a good way.
October 15, 2022 | Daily JAM |
Be on the lookout for extra volatility in the market for Treasuries. …signs of stress in the market for U.S. Treasuries. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is concerned, she said on Wednesday in answering questions after a speech. “We are worried about a loss of adequate liquidity in the market,” Yellen said. The balance-sheet capacity of broker-dealers to engage in Treasuries market-making hasn’t expanded much, while the overall supply of Treasuries has climbed, she noted.
January 24, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos, Volatility |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My ninety-second YouTube video “Trend of the Week Even More Volatility in Treasuries” went up today.
December 13, 2021 | Daily JAM, Videos |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My eightieth YouTube video “Trend of the Week: Ten-Year Treasury Notes are Tracking Volatility” went up today.
March 22, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The yield on the 10-year Treasury didn’t move much today, Monday, March 22, with the yield dropping 3 basis points to 1.69%. Treasury volatility could pick up big time later this week as the government auctions off Treasuries across a range of maturities. The action will reach a crescendo on Thursday as the U.S. Treasury auctions off $62 billion in seven-year notes. It was a disastrous failed auction of that maturity a month ago that ratcheted up volatility in the Treasury market.
October 29, 2017 | Daily JAM, Friday Trick or Trend, Volatility |
Last week’s drop has again led to the question “So where’s the volatility?” After all it’s not like there aren’t dangers in this world that might lead a trader to bid up the price of protecting against those dangers. It’s certainly not in the VIX, which looks for volatility in the S&P 500 future. But there’s actually plenty out there. It’s just all in the Treasury futures market where traders are hedging their bets on 10-year and 30-year Treasuries big time. The implied volatility in those futures markets has soared in the last couple of weeks.
