November 14, 2022 | COP, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, PXD, Videos |
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-fifth YouTube video. This week’s Trend of the Week: U.S. Oil Production is Not Rising as Expected. Oil prices have averaged $100 per barrel over 2022–a figure that would normally lead oil companies to expand production and capital spending, but it hasn’t this time. According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. oil production is only up about 3% from December 2021. Projections had the U.S. at 12 million barrels a day by the end of this year, but we’re currently only at 9.77 million barrels a day. Why is the production not going up? Oil shale fields deplete faster than traditional fields and we may have reached peak production in some of these oil shale basins. The best properties may have been exhausted and we’re now seeing companies move to their more inferior properties. The drilling and fracking may be happening at a steady pace, but we’re not getting as much out of the wells and properties currently being drilled. Companies that had a stock of drilled, but uncompleted have now worked through those “spare” wells and don’t have the motivation to drill new ones as Wall Street and investors would prefer high dividends instead of capital spent on a commodity that has an unclear future. The two oil companies I would look at are Pioneer Natural Resources Company (NYSE: PXD) and ConocoPhillips (COP) because of their mix of resources.
June 12, 2020 | Daily JAM, PE |
The number of active oil drilling rigs in the United Stats fell again this week, Baker Hughes reported today, with the number of active rigs falling for a 13th straight week. The Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico didn't escape the carnage even though...
May 29, 2020 | Daily JAM |
Baker Hughes reported today that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the United States fell by another 15 to 222 this week. This is the 11th straight weekly decline. The total active rig count, which includes oil and natural gas drilling rigs, dropped by 17 to 301....
June 26, 2019 | Daily JAM, PE, PXD |
U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude is now up 10% for the week following on a 2.44% jump in price to $59.24 a barrel today. International benchmark Brent crude gained 1.94% to $66.31 a barrel. Continued tensions between the United States and Iran, of course,...
December 6, 2018 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Two important piece of news that form the context for OPEC's meeting today and its attempt to set global oil prices. First, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that the United States turned into a net exporter of oil last week for the first time in 75...
November 11, 2018 | Daily JAM |
... oil, now in a bear market, to rally on news that at this weekend's OPEC meeting Saudi Arabia announced that in December it will export (and produce) 500,000 fewer barrels of oil a day than in November. Expect the market response to be relatively modest, though, as...
September 6, 2018 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
This morning the U.S. Energy Administration reported that U.S. crude inventories fell by 4.3 million barrels in the last week. But West Texas Intermediate fell 1.19% today to close at $67.90. International crude benchmark Brent crude dropped 0.82% to $76.64 a barrel....
March 6, 2018 | Daily JAM |
Oil turned in a surprisingly positive day after the U.S. Energy Information Administration radically increased its projections for U.S. oil production in 2018 and 2019. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell just 0.18% today to close at $62.46 a barrel. International benchmark Brent actually gained 0.12% to $65.66 a barrel.
February 19, 2018 | Daily JAM |
The goal was to cut production enough to reduce global oil inventories to their five-year average. The hope of the coalition of OPEC and Russia that reduction in production would get oil prices up to $60 a barrel. Now with that inventory reduction just about in place and with oil at $60 a barrel, the Saudis are pushing for further production cuts and a target price of $70 a barrel.
October 4, 2017 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Oil started the day rallying on a report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration for a draw down of 6 million barrels in U.S.crude inventories for the week ended September 29. And then oil fell on reports of a surge in U.S. oil experts large enough to raise fears that U.S. light sweet crude would flood global markets just as oil demand moves into seasonal weakness.
September 27, 2017 | Daily JAM, PXD |
U.S. oil producers have hedged more of their oil production in the last two weeks than in the last four to five months. In August a sample of 43 large and small U.S. producers had hedged just 23% of 2018 production. But now with West Texas Intermediate back above $52 a barrel, producers have rushed to finish hedging 2017 production, and the bulk of their 2018 production, and started to establish hedges for 2019.
August 22, 2017 | Daily JAM |
How soon will U.S. oil production from wells in oil shale geologies peak? It’s the big question for U.S. oil producers and for a global oil market swimming in excess inventory. As long as U.S. oil production continues to increase all of OPEC’s production cuts, intended to reduce that excess supply, aren’t going to get the job done. Since October 2016, U.S. crude oil production increased by more than one million barrels per day.
