April 2, 2024 | Daily JAM |
Today’s Hot Button Moves NOW video is Buy Japanese Yen. I frankly can’r remember the last time I recommended buyinfg Yen. No one has wanted to buy the Yen for a long time, and it was the last major currency to have negative interest rates. The Bank of Japan has finally moved interest rates into positive territory. But, just barely. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are currently at about 4.2% and the gap is about 3.5% between that and the Japanese government bond. A popular short is betting that the gap will get even wider. And the Yen is under speculative attack with market pressure to driving it down lower. But the Yen is currently too low, the Bank of Japan is starting to say ans the current price against the dollsr is around where it was the last time the Bank of Japan intervened. It’s likely we’ll hear more talk of intervention in the next three months or so and because there’s such a large short position we’re likely to see a decent pop in the Yen. To take advantage of this (potential) bounce, you can use the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust ETF (FXY). Also, I would hold on to any Japanese stocks until we see that bounce. This isn’t a long term play, nor should it be a big chunk of your portfolio, but it’s a play that could see pop in the next three months.
March 19, 2024 | Daily JAM, KBWB, Mid Term, Millennial, Videos |
Today’s Quick Pick is Lithium Americas (LAC). Lithium Americas is an American lithium producer, with a big deposit in Thacker Pass that has been going through litigation and delays while struggling to get enough financing with lithium prices down. We’ll likely see a bottom of lithium prices in the second half of 2024 or early 2025, so this is a good time to be getting in near the bottom. Lithium Americas signed a contract with General Motors agreeing that GM would take all the lithium they can produce, the question is, Can they produce it? Recently, the Department of Energy announced they’ll be lending Lithium Americas $2.3 billion to move forward with their processing facility. At the moment, China controls nearly all of the processing facilities for lithium globally and this investment will allow for domestic processing. This loan will cover all their capital costs and enable them to start production. The stock is moving upward, with shares around $6.50 per share. The recent rally has brought the stock back up to the price from December 2023, and the Wall Street consensus is that the stock may hit $11.50 in a year. While that prediction may be a bit ambitious, I think it’s likely we’ll see it reach $9-10, up about a third once they start to actually produce lithium in conjunction with lithium prices going up.
March 14, 2024 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, NVDA, QCOM, Top 50 Stocks, Videos |
Today’s Hot Button Moves NOW video is AI Woodstock. Nvidia’s big AI update on March 18 has been dubbed “AI Woodstock” by Bank of America. Nvidia will update its pipeline and prospects for new projects and report on where it sees the AI market going. It will likely create volatility throughout the AI sector as investors try to get out ahead of the company’s projections. Tuesday, Bank of America raised its target price for Nvidia from $925 to $1100 and upped its estimate of the size of the AI accelerator market from under $250 billion to $250-500 billion in 3-5 years. This wide gap in both market size and time makes me a little nervous, but for now we can focus on the next few days. Nvidia will be discussing its new B1000 and N100 chips, ethernet switches, and AI at the Edge for PCs and smartphones. Keep an eye on stocks like Broadcom (AVGO), Qualcomm (QCOM) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI) for reaction to this news. The volatility in the reaction could open up a good place to get in on these AI stocks.
February 10, 2024 | CVS, Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Videos |
Today’s Quick Pick is CVS Health (CVS). CVS owns a unique combination of healthcare delivery channels. Drugstores, yes–9,000 of them. But the company also owns health insurance company, Aetna, and Caremark, the largest pharmacy benefit manager. And recently it moved into the primary care marketplace through its acquisition of Oak Street. The company reported earnings on Wednesday, February 7, and the stock was up about 3.25% after that. While the earnings were good, (they beat by $0.13) the guidance is what is important here. The company projected higher costs for 2024 and cut guidance for GAAP earnings ($7.06) and adjusted earnings ($8.30). The reason the stock went up despite these cuts is that everyone was expecting DEEPER cuts to guidance. CVS has been signaling for weeks that rising costs in 2024 could be painful for the healthcare sector as a whole, and the relatively minor cuts in guidance led to a rally in the stock. Morningstar calculates a fair value for CVS Health of $103 a share. The stock closed at $76.32 on February 9. The stock also pays a 2.36% dividend. The stock is a member of my Dividend Portfolio. That position is up 31.25% since October 28, 2020.
May 30, 2023 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
This week’s Trend of the Week video is COVID is Hitting China Again. China is seeing another wave of COVID. We can expect this wave to peak at the end of June with around 65 million cases a week. While that’s a huge number, the previous wave saw 35 million cases a day. So, yes, this is a smaller wave, but it certainly won’t help China’s economy, which is struggling to get back to a 5% growth rate. The country is also dealing with a youth unemployment crisis where the recent graduate unemployment rate is around 25%. This wave of COVID isn’t likely to shut down the entire country–if only because China’s leadership isn’t about to go back to the prior policy of widespread closures of factories and entire neighborhoods–but it is likely that some people will be less inclined go out, mandate or not, and they may self-impose their own lockdown until the wave subsides. This is all likely to take a bite out of the growth rate which was edging back toward 5%. As stocks stagnate and a recovery rally in China looks to be coming to an early end, I’ll be posting about shorting China ETFs on my paid site, JubakAM.com.
April 4, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
This week’s Trend of the Week asks Why, despite all the turmoil in the markets, has the CBOE Volatility Index–also known as the VIX, or the “Fear Index,” remained so low? I think this should signal to us that the market has not currently worried in the near term about long-term problems it knows are coming down the road, like rate hikes and a recession at the end of 2022 or in 2023.. In the VIX’s short-term view, there’s no need to worry. Time to put a call on the VIX?
February 17, 2022 | ALB, AMAT, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Millennial, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and second YouTube video “Strong hands vs. hot hands” went up today. Today I’m looking at a few stocks that exemplify what most experienced traders know: some hands are steady, and some are not. So when Nvidia announced this week that it expected to see supply chain issues (despite beating earnings and raising guidance), the stock fell. Similar things happened to chip-making equipment supplier Applied Materials and Albemarle, the lithium maker. I’m taking this opportunity to add some of these stocks into my portfolios. What about you?
February 3, 2022 | Daily JAM |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My ninety-sixth YouTube video “Why PayPal is a buy and Facebook isn’t” went up today.
January 14, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My eighty-eighth YouTube video “QuickPick: The Trade Desk” went up today.
January 7, 2022 | AMZN, Daily JAM, MSFT, NVDA, Videos |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My eighty-fourth YouTube video “3 Picks for When the Tech Selling Stops” went up today.
October 22, 2021 | Daily JAM |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My sixty-second YouTube video “QuickPick: Eversource Energy” went up today.
September 24, 2021 | Daily JAM, Videos |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My fiftieth YouTube video “Quick Pick Adobe” went up today.