February 29, 2024 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Videos, Volatility |
Today’s Hot Button Moves NOW video is Buy Viking Therapeutics (VKTX). Last week I suggested that you buy GLP-1 drug stocks like Eli Lilly (LLY) or Novo Nordisk (NVO). This class of diabetes and weight loss drugs is growing rapidly, with $36.5 billion in sales in 2023. Viking Therapeutics, a development-stage biotech company, recently announced Phase 2 trial results for its compound VK2735. This drug has the potential to be the best in its class when it hits the market. The company still has to go through Phase 3 trials and approval, but the data show VK2735 to be more effective at weight loss than its competitors. It could also be one of the few drugs of its kind to be available orally. The current round of trials shows that the drug will need to be injected less frequently than competitors. The company trades with a market cap of $9 billion (in contrast to Lilly’s $720 billion market cap) and is still small enough that it could be bought before the expensive process of taking a drug to market. (Although the company recently raised a secondary offering that would advance marketing plans.) I would buy this up to $100 a share and expect it to continue to zoom as more good news, I expect, on the oral version gets released this quarter. I am adding the stock to my online portfolios today, Thursday, February 29. You can find a write up on this pick on my subscription JubakAM.com and free JubakPicks.com sites.
February 16, 2024 | Daily JAM, KRE, Short Term, Volatility |
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July 13, 2023 | Daily JAM, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks, Videos, Volatility |
Today’s Quick Pick is Nvidia (NVDA)–Hold Through Earnings on August 23. Nvidia reports late in this quarter’s earnings season, and this report is expected to be very good. Wall Street’s expectations range from a low of 75 cents a share to a high of $1.75 but the consensus is $1.66 a share, up from 32 cents last year. Nvidia has been reporting 30% positive surprises in recent quarters, so there’s a good chance the results may be even better than expected. My suggestion is to hold the stock through this report in August, and then think about selling. I know, I know. Sell Nvidia!? That’s crazy! Here’s the thing. At some point, Nvidia’s growth rate is going to start to slow. When it does, people will look at the stock and decide the slower growth rate may not
June 26, 2023 | ADBE, Daily JAM, Top 50 Stocks, Volatility |
Adobe’s recent earnings report and guidance leave investors, at least those of us still paying any attention at all to valuation, in a bit of a quandary. Do we sell Adobe on that lackluster forecast for earnings and revenue growth over the next two quarters (and what looks like a stretch, very stretched valuation) or do we hold on with the hope that the market continues its love affair with everything AI?
May 2, 2023 | Daily JAM, SCHW, Short Term, Volatility |
I’m closing this position on Schwab (SCHW) in my Volatility Portion at a slight loss–I bought these Put Options on March 28 at $3.70 and they traded at $3.50 today May 2–that’s a 5.4% loss. But with the expiration date on these options approaching, I am concerned that the price of the option will fall with time decay.
April 26, 2023 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, MSFT, Top 50 Stocks, Volatility |
To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the...
March 28, 2023 | Daily JAM, SCHW, Top 50 Stocks, Volatility |
This is shaping up as a very tough earnings season for all financial stocks. But no stock looks more exposed to a short-term hit than Charles Schwab (SCHW.) Which is why I’m adding the May 19 Put Options with a strike of $52.50 to my Volatility Portfolio tomorrow, March 29.
March 21, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
On March 6, I bought the May 17 Call Options with a strike of 23 on the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (the VIX) when the index traded at 18.61. I figured that the “Fear Index” was so low that it wouldn’t take much to push it and these options higher. A week later the options were up 116% after the VIX climbed to 26.52. Historically, that isn’t a very high reading for the VIX, which can easily hit 35 to 45 when fear engulfs the market. I’m still holding my June 21 Call Options with a strike of $23. But I’ve been looking for a chance to replay that earlier trade. Somehow (LOL) I don’t think this market is done with volatility.
December 26, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
I vote for the latter–even though I acknowledge that the VIX, the CBOE S&P Volatility Index (VIX), which is supposed to track expectations for short-term volatility in the market, is behaving very strangely lately. The VIX is supposed to climb along with fear in the market as investors and traders step up to buy options and futures, even at higher prices, in order to hedge risk. But even as stocks have struggled in December the VIX has tumbled. It was down another 5.01% today to just 20.87.
September 22, 2022 | Daily JAM, JO, Videos, Volatility |
Today’s Quick Pick: JO (NYSEARCA: JO) otherwise known as Barclays iPath Bloomberg Coffee Subindex Total Return ETN Series B. As I’ve shown you in the video, I’m growing my own coffee plant to head off the coffee shortages we’re seeing now (first beans projected in 2028; enough for a cup? 2032), and will likely continue to see long-term. Brazil is the world’s largest producer of coffee but its inventory is projected to drop to about 7 million bags by March, (well below the comfort level of about 9-12 million bags.) A long-lasting drought is to blame for the shortages–and that dicey weather is likely to be with us for quite a while. Meanwhile, global coffee consumption is going up by 1.5% projected this year (2% last year). While JO is volatile since it trades on the commodity price, what interests me about it at the moment is that it’s NOT correlated to anything else like interest rates or inflation (though it definitely contributes to inflation as coffee drinkers well know.) This ETN will continue to go up, even if the market goes down. (JO is a member of my Volatility Portfolio on my subscription JubakAM.com site.)
August 11, 2022 | Daily JAM, RUN, SGMO, Volatility |
Yesterday’s bounce on the better-than-expected July CPI inflation numbers–the annual rate dropped to 8.5% from 9.1% in June while economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting a drop to an 8.7% rate–looks to be fading today, August 11, but I’m going to squeeze in two more sells, Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) and Sunrun (RUN) for tomorrow to take advantage of this Bear Market rally. Both sells are out of my Volatility Portfolio. The high potential upside of these two picks has driven them to big gains in the Bear Market rally that began in July. That same volatility, on the downside, makes them stocks I don’t want to hold in any return of the Bear Market.
May 17, 2022 | ALB, Daily JAM, DAL, DE, DIS, FQVLF, Long Term, MRVL, NVDA, PFE, SCCO, USB, Volatility |
In my weekend Saturday Night Quarterback I said that this week would, probably, answer the question of whether Friday’s big bounce was just a bounce, the start of a buy on the dip rally, or even a bear market rally with a bit of staying power. Two days into the week I think the market action is moving in favor of a bear market rally, one of those often quite powerful upside moves that punctuate extended bear markets.
