December 7, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos |
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-fourteenth YouTube video: Waiting for the Fed. We are about a week out from the Fed’s December 14 meeting, where another 50 basis point increase is expected. We’re now in the Fed’s quiet period, but last week Fed presidents were adamantly setting expectations for 50 basis points. A 50 basis point increase would be a step down from the previous 75 basis points, and many would see that as a sign that the Fed is tapering. However, the main thing to look at on December 14 is the Dot Plot of projections from the Fed itself. That will tell investors and traders how much longer the Fed now expects these raises to continue, and how where the peak might be in rates for this cycle. Wall Street is currently predicting a peak 5% benchmark rate. (We’re currently at 3.75-4%.) But I think the top is likely closer to 6%. If the Fed settles into a projection of 5%, the market will likely relax and head into an end-of-year rally that might end in the beginning to mid-January. If the Fed gives any impression that it’s looking looks at something closer to 5.5 to 6%, that would be enough to scare the market and lead Wall Street to lower projections of market gains for 2023. Right now the S&P 500 continues to teeter on the edge of resistance near the 4,000 ceiling set by previous highs of 4110 in September and 4080 at the end of November. If the Fed doesn’t come out with jarring news on the 14th, I think we can look for the index to break through 4000 until it heads back down in January 2023.
November 13, 2022 | Daily JAM, NVDA, WMT |
Expect a ton of earnings reports as third-quarter earnings season hits its stride. A few could even move a sector or maybe even the market as a whole. The biggie for the week, I’d argue, is Nvidia (NVDA) on Wednesday, November 16, after the market close. But we’ve also got big news in the retail sector with Walmart (WMT) due to report on November 15.
November 17, 2021 | AMAT, AMD, Daily JAM, F, Mid Term, QCOM, Special Reports |
Tolstoy was wrong when he wrote at the beginning of Anna Karenina that “All happy stock markets are alike; each unhappy market is unhappy in its own way.” (That’s what it says in the original Russian, I swear.) Truth is that all happy stock markets are different.
There are the long rallies from valuation bottoms that come after a disaster like the Global Financial Crisis and the Great Recession. There are the sharp quick explosive moves higher that come after the passing of a panic with less damage than expected like that after the Pandemic meltdown in the spring of 2020. And, among all the other happy markets, there are the market melt ups that come after a long bull market has already driven valuations to nose-bleed levels. Sometimes that melt up turns out to be the final blow out stage that comes before a big correction–but not always. And sometimes the melt up just drives stocks to a high where they stagnate while fundamentals catch up with prices. I believe we’re in the midst of a market melt up now. In this Special Report I’m going to outline the ways in which this “happy” market is different; give you advice on how to adapt this rally to your portfolio goals; and finally give you 10 picks for profiting from this melt-up.
November 11, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
I don’t care how you want to frame the number, yesterday’s (November 10) report that consumer inflation (as measured by the Consumer Price Index) rose at a 6.2% annualized rate in October was shockingly high. The number is the kind of shock that can derail a rally or reverse a prevailing upward trend. So far, though, the market action says the upward trend through the end of the year is intact.
December 27, 2019 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
The Standard & Poor's 500 closed dead even for today December 27. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was head just 008%. The NASDAQ Composite slipped 0.17% and the Russell 2000 small cap index was off 0.62%. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets EFT (EEM) was up by...
