Lessons from my bad trade in INCY call options in my Volatility Portfolio
Wow. That sure didn’t work the way I intended. Back on May 23 I added the July 21 $140 calls on Incyte (INCY) to my Volatility Portfolio. Those calls traded at $7.10 that day. As I wrote in my post that day, to make money on these options, I’d need to get a move of $4 or so to move the share price above $140 and to move the options into the money. My logic at the time was pretty simple.
Time to move on from trading SDRL
Seadrill (SDRL) Â was scheduled to file for a pre-packaged bankruptcy today. Â When it didn't, the shares soared. Before finishing the day up 17.46%--a 3 cents a share gain to 23 cents--the stock was up as much as 31.17% as of noon in New York. If you've been trading...
Notes You Need for September 12: China’s yuan, VIX, natural gas, BABA, Brexit, Apple
In my daily trawling through the market I come upon lots of tidbits of knowledge that I think are important to investors but that don’t justify a full post. I’ve decided to start compiling these notes here each day in a kind of running mini blog that I’m calling Notes You Need. I launched this new feature on JubakAM.com on December 1. It runs only on JAM and won’t appear anywhere else. For example, 10:20 a.m.: It looks like China’s monetary authorities are starting to relax about the yuan.
Financials continue to rally in wake of reports of less damage than expected in Florida from Irma
Yesterday forecasts of lower than expected damage from Hurricane Irma were enough to light a fire under shares of insurance companies, the Financial Select Sector SPDR and the market as a whole. Today even a warning from Citigroup that trading revenue would fall 15% in the third quarter has been enough to derail the upward trend in financials.
Notes You Need for September 11: Rig count, Whole Foods traffic, opioids, North Korea
In my daily trawling through the market I come upon lots of tidbits of knowledge that I think are important to investors but that don’t justify a full post. I’ve decided to start compiling these notes here each day in a kind of running mini blog that I’m calling Notes You Need. I launched this new feature on JubakAM.com on December 1. For example, 10:20 a.m.: On Friday Baker Hughes reported that the total of working drilling rigs in the United States had climbed one to 944 for the week. That follows on an increase of three in the rig total last week.
Adding a gold ETF on today’s drop in the metal on hurricane, North Korea relief
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Good news for the global economy: Inflation picks up in China
On Sunday the Chinese government announced that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI)rose at a  year over year rate of 1.8%. Economists had expected a 1.6% increase. The August rate was the fastest pace since January. Core CPI, that is without the effect of volatile prices for energy and food, rose at a 2.2% year over year rate.
Trick or Trend: A weak dollar looks set up to fall further
As of Friday, September 8, the U.S. dollar is down 11.3% against a basket of currency peers from its local high on December21. The Dollar Index (DXY) of the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, and Swedish krona, closed at 91.35 on Friday. It was at 103.02 on December 21. That, of course, is history. But on Friday Deutsche Bank strategist George Saravelos told the bank’s clients to expect a further decline in the dollar.
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
News from Apple’s September 12 iPhone event is  obviously, important for Apple shares. The stock closed up 36.96% for 2017 as of September 9 and is ahead 56.5% for the last year. Investors and traders have pushed the stock high on a belief that for the 10th anniversary of the iPhone Apple will produce something great. But the importance of Apple’s news to the general market can’t be exaggerated at a time when that general market seems inclined to nervousness
What would a Trump Fed do?
Another day, another vacancy on the Federal Reserve for President Donald Trump to fill. That adds previous three vacancies on the seven-member board of governors. The seat for the vice chair in charge of financial supervision is empty, although Trump has nominated Randal Quarles for the slot. The slot for governor for community banking is vacant and the administration hasn’t sent a name to Congress for confirmation. A third governor’s position is also open.And then, of course, there’s the big vacancy that will occur when the term of current Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen ends on February 3. (Although Yellen’s term as a Fed governor doesn’t expire until 2024.) The four open seats–plus the end of Yellen’s term as chair–give Trump an extraordinary opportunity to shape the Fed–and policy at the world’s most powerful central bank.
Financial sector moves into clear downtrend
Financial stocks rallied strongly after Donald Trump’s victory in the November election for two reasons: A Trump administration would roll back at least some of the regulations enacted to restrain bank risk-taking after the Global Financial crisis, and the Federal Reserve’s schedule for three or four interest rate increases by the end of 2017 would lead to the kind of a steeper yield curve that hikes bank profits. The first of those two reasons is still in place but the second is the subject of increasing market skepticism.
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